Mark Moss said something today in a clip from an interview with Cointelegraph that may make bulls uncomfortable: the halving may no longer pack the punch it once did.
His reasoning is that the newly issued supply of Bitcoin has become so small relative to demand that it’s almost negligible. Cutting it in half again won’t change the bigger picture. In his view, the four-year cycle narrative is becoming less explanatory.
There’s a quantitative basis for this view. In the early days, a halving meant an immediate 50% cut in annual new supply—a shortfall the market could feel. Today, the coins mined each day make up only a tiny share of spot trading and ETF flows, so demand-side fluctuations overshadow the supply shock.
Halving dates used to be a reference point for many people planning their trades. When the marginal change in supply becomes this small, that reference point’s useful lifespan gets shorter.
$BTC #Bitcoin
His reasoning is that the newly issued supply of Bitcoin has become so small relative to demand that it’s almost negligible. Cutting it in half again won’t change the bigger picture. In his view, the four-year cycle narrative is becoming less explanatory.
There’s a quantitative basis for this view. In the early days, a halving meant an immediate 50% cut in annual new supply—a shortfall the market could feel. Today, the coins mined each day make up only a tiny share of spot trading and ETF flows, so demand-side fluctuations overshadow the supply shock.
Halving dates used to be a reference point for many people planning their trades. When the marginal change in supply becomes this small, that reference point’s useful lifespan gets shorter.
$BTC #Bitcoin
