Before the market closed tonight, I checked the list of biggest losers again. At the bottom of the top 100 was $PUMP, down about 5.7% over 24 hours. It’s now around 0.00378, basically sitting at today’s low.

I’ve been watching this all afternoon, and the more I look, the more it feels like this wasn’t a sudden crash—it’s been grinding lower bit by bit. Here are a few public data points to consider together:

- Pump.fun’s revenue over the past 7 days was about $7.4 million, down 10% from the previous week. Two weeks ago, it was still $9.9 million, meaning it’s fallen by a quarter in two weeks.

- On November 6, another roughly 76,000 SOL was transferred to exchange deposit addresses. According to third-party tracking platforms, the cumulative amount of SOL sold has already topped 5 million.

- PUMP itself is down more than 30% in 30 days. SOL is also down just over 6% this week, and is now around $89.

My understanding is that the platform itself is still making money, with 30-day revenue about the same as last month. But revenue is trending down, and the platform keeps selling SOL, so the market has priced in both of those things. Over the past few years, I’ve seen time and again that whether a platform is doing well and whether its token goes up are two separate things.

Let’s revisit this morning’s take. This morning I said the money hadn’t come back over the weekend, and tonight it still looks the same: $BTC it’s been moving back and forth between $74,900 and $76,200 all day, and is now around $75,800. ETH has barely moved, hovering near $2,240. The Fear and Greed Index is still at 25, in extreme fear. With the broader market offering no clear direction, funds are dumping coins with fundamental weaknesses.

Here are a few things I’ll be watching tomorrow and next week:

1. Sunday’s STABLE unlock and AVAX’s quarterly unlock, and whether there are concentrated transfers to exchanges once they happen.

2. U.S. CPI next week. That’s what could really turn the broader market around.

3. Whether PUMP can hold the line at around $1 million in daily revenue. The latest daily figure was $980,000.

I’ve thought through both scenarios. If BTC reclaims $76,200 on strong volume, altcoins will probably get a breather, and oversold coins like PUMP may bounce first—but I won’t mistake a bounce for a reversal. If BTC falls below the 30-day low of $74,900, high-beta SOL ecosystem coins will probably keep getting dragged down. At that point, I’d rather stay out and watch.

My rule of thumb is not to take a large position in coins like this while news of the platform selling tokens keeps coming. Do you think PUMP is oversold now, or only halfway through its drop?

The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks.