The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, nearly three times expectations, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Odaily’s U.S. stock market daily report said the probability of a December rate hike rose to 80%, while the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.86%. Cointelegraph also confirmed that bets on a December rate hike increased after the stronger-than-expected jobs data (November 7).
Risk assets came under pressure first: the Nasdaq rebounded 1.09% on Friday, but was still down 3.37% for the week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. Binance snapshot at 21:03 on November 7: BTC at $75,916 (-0.111%), with a 24-hour range of $74,888–$76,250. Cointelegraph said BTC did not follow the U.S. stock market’s rebound, and the 50-week moving average, at around $77,533, remained above the price.
Personal view: As rate expectations heat up, BTC should prioritize defense. If the 4-hour candle closes above 76,250 and a retest holds above 75,900, consider a long, targeting 77,300 and 78,500, with a stop-loss at 75,000. If it breaks below 74,888 and fails to reclaim it on a bounce, watch 73,500 and 72,500, with a stop-loss at 76,400. The bearish structure will only clearly weaken if price reclaims 77,533.
Odaily cited a Bitcoin News study reporting that since 2016, the Fed has resumed rate hikes 7 times after pausing. BTC’s median change over the following 30 days was -2.4%, with 0 wins and 7 losses, though the sample is very small. If CPI and rate pricing continue to heat up, a rebound is more likely to be a recovery than a reversal. Would you reduce leverage before data week?
$BTC
The above content does not constitute investment advice.