First, let’s settle the books: On Monday I said institutions were fighting themselves while retail investors watched from the sidelines—and looking back at this week, the show is over, but retail investors are left holding the bill. $BTC plunged from 78,354 to 74,888 in a week, hitting a seven-week low. On Saturday it hovered just above 76,000, with the 50-week moving average at 75,559 right beneath it. If that level breaks, the next stop is 73,000.
Five blows landed this week, each worse than the last. First, nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000—triple expectations—and the odds of a December rate hike surged to 75%. The Fed hasn’t even made its move, and crypto has already buckled. Second, ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion for the week, including $411.9 million on Friday alone. Institutions say they’re bullish long term, but their feet tell the truth. Third, Binance France is shutting down on December 31. It didn’t secure the MiCA license it needed, so its European operation is closing up shop first. Fourth, whales are withdrawing coins while taking losses: 1,286 BTC were moved back to private wallets at a 15% loss. That signal is clearer than any candlestick chart. Fifth, the Fear and Greed Index is at 25—extreme fear. Everyone is calling the bottom, but those calling it have no ammo left.
Put simply, it wasn’t the technicals that broke this week—it was confidence. Price is hovering around the 50-week moving average. If it holds, that’s the bottom; if it doesn’t, we drop another level. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
CPI comes out next Tuesday at 21:30. Overall inflation is expected to rise 0.3%, with core inflation at 0.2%. Over the next two days, will you add to your position and bet on CPI, or stay in cash until the numbers are out? Pick a side in the comments. #JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds #BTC #CPI
Five blows landed this week, each worse than the last. First, nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000—triple expectations—and the odds of a December rate hike surged to 75%. The Fed hasn’t even made its move, and crypto has already buckled. Second, ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion for the week, including $411.9 million on Friday alone. Institutions say they’re bullish long term, but their feet tell the truth. Third, Binance France is shutting down on December 31. It didn’t secure the MiCA license it needed, so its European operation is closing up shop first. Fourth, whales are withdrawing coins while taking losses: 1,286 BTC were moved back to private wallets at a 15% loss. That signal is clearer than any candlestick chart. Fifth, the Fear and Greed Index is at 25—extreme fear. Everyone is calling the bottom, but those calling it have no ammo left.
Put simply, it wasn’t the technicals that broke this week—it was confidence. Price is hovering around the 50-week moving average. If it holds, that’s the bottom; if it doesn’t, we drop another level. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
CPI comes out next Tuesday at 21:30. Overall inflation is expected to rise 0.3%, with core inflation at 0.2%. Over the next two days, will you add to your position and bet on CPI, or stay in cash until the numbers are out? Pick a side in the comments. #JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds #BTC #CPI
