$SPY forward P/E dropped to 17.7 as of Nov 5—lowest level since Nov 1, 2023.
Context:
• 5yr avg: 19.8x
• 10yr avg: 19.1x
• 25yr avg: 16.4x
We're now trading below the 5yr and 10yr averages but still above the 25yr mean. This is a meaningful compression—either earnings expectations are rising faster than price, or the market is pricing in real risk.
If you believe in normalized growth resuming, this is starting to look like value. If you think we're headed into a margin squeeze or macro slowdown, 17.7x might not be the floor.
Watch earnings revisions closely. Multiples mean nothing if estimates roll over.
Context:
• 5yr avg: 19.8x
• 10yr avg: 19.1x
• 25yr avg: 16.4x
We're now trading below the 5yr and 10yr averages but still above the 25yr mean. This is a meaningful compression—either earnings expectations are rising faster than price, or the market is pricing in real risk.
If you believe in normalized growth resuming, this is starting to look like value. If you think we're headed into a margin squeeze or macro slowdown, 17.7x might not be the floor.
Watch earnings revisions closely. Multiples mean nothing if estimates roll over.
