#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
Tonight’s CPI: Don’t focus on the year-over-year figure—it won’t exist.
#CPI前瞻 #美联储 #BTC #币安广场
$BTC $AAPLB $MSFTB
The October CPI report at 20:30 on November 10 is unlike any other.
The BLS will not release year-over-year data. The reason goes back to the federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025: data collection for October last year was halted, leaving no base period from which to calculate the year-over-year figure.
So tonight, the only figure to watch is the month-over-month change.
Morgan Stanley’s forecast: headline CPI up 0.19% month over month, and core CPI up 0.19% month over month—well below September’s 0.33% core reading. If it comes in around 0.2%, that would theoretically signal that inflation is cooling.
But here’s the problem—the market is now pricing in a rate hike in December, not a rate cut.
Latest from CME: a 68.7% probability of a 25 bp hike in December, and a 31.3% probability of no change. Is a “mild” month-over-month reading enough to bring that 68.7% hike probability down? That’s the real question tonight.
BTC is now around 75,000, and the Fear and Greed Index is at 32, still in fear territory. Before the data comes out, watch more and trade less.
Tonight’s CPI: Don’t focus on the year-over-year figure—it won’t exist.
#CPI前瞻 #美联储 #BTC #币安广场
$BTC $AAPLB $MSFTB
The October CPI report at 20:30 on November 10 is unlike any other.
The BLS will not release year-over-year data. The reason goes back to the federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025: data collection for October last year was halted, leaving no base period from which to calculate the year-over-year figure.
So tonight, the only figure to watch is the month-over-month change.
Morgan Stanley’s forecast: headline CPI up 0.19% month over month, and core CPI up 0.19% month over month—well below September’s 0.33% core reading. If it comes in around 0.2%, that would theoretically signal that inflation is cooling.
But here’s the problem—the market is now pricing in a rate hike in December, not a rate cut.
Latest from CME: a 68.7% probability of a 25 bp hike in December, and a 31.3% probability of no change. Is a “mild” month-over-month reading enough to bring that 68.7% hike probability down? That’s the real question tonight.
BTC is now around 75,000, and the Fear and Greed Index is at 32, still in fear territory. Before the data comes out, watch more and trade less.