Today's Crypto Brief｜November 7
Hey folks, good evening!! It's the weekend, so the market is quiet, but there are a few big things we need to talk about～
1️⃣ Sentiment is way more panicked than prices!! CoinGecko has Bitcoin at around 75.9K, ETH around 2,245, BNB around 694, and SOL around 90. They've basically been flat over the past 24 hours, but the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25—Extreme Fear. CryptoTicker says this is the first time it's fallen into this range since August 6～
My take: prices are only down a few points, but sentiment has been cut in half. That's the most gut-wrenching part of this weekend, haha. Don't treat “Extreme Fear = must-buy-the-dip” as a signal. Just see whether ETFs can turn green next week and that's that!!!
2️⃣ Institutions are still dumping: According to Investing.com / Farside, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of around $411.9 million on Friday, with around $403 million coming from IBIT alone. The total for November through Friday was around $1.28 billion, and only Wednesday was in the green this month. Friday's 24-hour derivatives liquidations also exceeded around $1.27 billion, with longs accounting for more than around $1.1 billion～
My take: The market has drifted back toward 76K. Don't mistake a “small weekend bounce” for institutions coming back in!!!
3️⃣ FinCEN has made its move!! On November 6, the U.S. Treasury issued an order to cut MEXC Global off from the U.S. financial system, alleging that between 2021 and 2026 it handled at least around $16 billion in funds linked to sanctions evasion and cybercrime (official press release / Bitcoin Magazine). Note: this is not an OFAC listing and doesn't freeze assets; it prohibits U.S. financial institutions from conducting transactions with it. It takes effect 30 days after publication in the Federal Register, which hasn't happened yet this weekend. MEXC says operations are normal and user assets are safe, and that it's conducting an independent compliance review～
My take: This isn't simply about “taking down an exchange”—the U.S. is using access to financial channels to put the squeeze on exchanges!!! If you keep funds on an exchange, don't take the easy route—make sure you've thought through compliance and backup options～
4️⃣ Macro headwinds are still bearing down: Last night's nonfarm payrolls came in hot (165,000 new jobs, versus expectations of only around 60,000), and futures pushed the odds of another rate hike in December to around 80%. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.88%. The Labor Department's final safe-harbor rule for alternative assets (including crypto) in 401(k) plans has been sent to the White House for review, but it's a safe harbor, not a requirement to add more assets—don't use it as a reason to chase prices this weekend, haha.
My take: Rate-hike expectations are rising and institutions are pulling out. Sit back and watch over the weekend, then keep an eye on ETF flows next week and that's that!!!
Overall: Today is all about “Extreme Fear + institutions keep dumping + regulators tighten the screws again.” I'm still not chasing highs or using leverage. I'll make moves gradually once things stabilize after a pullback～
Are you more worried about ETFs continuing to see outflows next week, or are you more focused on whether this move against MEXC could affect other exchanges?
$BTC $ETH
#加密快报 #Crypto
Hey folks, good evening!! It's the weekend, so the market is quiet, but there are a few big things we need to talk about～
1️⃣ Sentiment is way more panicked than prices!! CoinGecko has Bitcoin at around 75.9K, ETH around 2,245, BNB around 694, and SOL around 90. They've basically been flat over the past 24 hours, but the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25—Extreme Fear. CryptoTicker says this is the first time it's fallen into this range since August 6～
My take: prices are only down a few points, but sentiment has been cut in half. That's the most gut-wrenching part of this weekend, haha. Don't treat “Extreme Fear = must-buy-the-dip” as a signal. Just see whether ETFs can turn green next week and that's that!!!
2️⃣ Institutions are still dumping: According to Investing.com / Farside, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of around $411.9 million on Friday, with around $403 million coming from IBIT alone. The total for November through Friday was around $1.28 billion, and only Wednesday was in the green this month. Friday's 24-hour derivatives liquidations also exceeded around $1.27 billion, with longs accounting for more than around $1.1 billion～
My take: The market has drifted back toward 76K. Don't mistake a “small weekend bounce” for institutions coming back in!!!
3️⃣ FinCEN has made its move!! On November 6, the U.S. Treasury issued an order to cut MEXC Global off from the U.S. financial system, alleging that between 2021 and 2026 it handled at least around $16 billion in funds linked to sanctions evasion and cybercrime (official press release / Bitcoin Magazine). Note: this is not an OFAC listing and doesn't freeze assets; it prohibits U.S. financial institutions from conducting transactions with it. It takes effect 30 days after publication in the Federal Register, which hasn't happened yet this weekend. MEXC says operations are normal and user assets are safe, and that it's conducting an independent compliance review～
My take: This isn't simply about “taking down an exchange”—the U.S. is using access to financial channels to put the squeeze on exchanges!!! If you keep funds on an exchange, don't take the easy route—make sure you've thought through compliance and backup options～
4️⃣ Macro headwinds are still bearing down: Last night's nonfarm payrolls came in hot (165,000 new jobs, versus expectations of only around 60,000), and futures pushed the odds of another rate hike in December to around 80%. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.88%. The Labor Department's final safe-harbor rule for alternative assets (including crypto) in 401(k) plans has been sent to the White House for review, but it's a safe harbor, not a requirement to add more assets—don't use it as a reason to chase prices this weekend, haha.
My take: Rate-hike expectations are rising and institutions are pulling out. Sit back and watch over the weekend, then keep an eye on ETF flows next week and that's that!!!
Overall: Today is all about “Extreme Fear + institutions keep dumping + regulators tighten the screws again.” I'm still not chasing highs or using leverage. I'll make moves gradually once things stabilize after a pullback～
Are you more worried about ETFs continuing to see outflows next week, or are you more focused on whether this move against MEXC could affect other exchanges?
$BTC $ETH
#加密快报 #Crypto