On November 6, Pump.fun’s fee wallet sprang into action after 15 days of dormancy, transferring 76,111 SOL—worth about $6.85 million at $90 per coin—to Kraken. On-chain data shows only that the funds moved, not why. That same week, the platform also bought back and burned $5.02 million worth of PUMP. Money was flowing in and out, while the token price remained below its issue price.

Pump.fun is a one-click token launchpad on Solana. It launched in early 2024, letting anyone create a token in just a few clicks; if enough people buy in, it graduates to an external pool. On July 12, 2025, PUMP was offered to the public: 125 billion tokens at $0.004 each. The sale sold out in 12 minutes, raising $500 million. Including the private sale, it raised $1.2 billion, making it the third-largest ICO in history. In March 2024, co-founder Alon said that presales were a scam.

This platform really does make money. According to DefiLlama data, fees over the past 30 days totaled $54 million, and October revenue was about $62 million—the most profitable month in its history. The buybacks are real money too: $499.82 million cumulatively, equivalent to 17.5% of the total supply. The amount burned has caught up with the $500 million raised in the ICO.

But the token price tells a different story. PUMP is now at $0.00386, 3.5% below its launch price and down 56% from its September peak of $0.008819. It has fallen 36% in 30 days. Its market cap is $1.77 billion. The circulating supply is 459 billion tokens, or 56% of the total 824 billion. Another 6.77 billion tokens, worth about $27.67 million, are set to unlock in November.

There’s no link between the business and the token price: the platform earns money from token launches and trading volume, regardless of what happens to the token. Only 1 in 58 new tokens graduates, and 79% of tokens are traded only on their launch day. On November 1, referral rewards were cut from 100% to 37.5%. On November 6, trader j criticized the model on X, saying the platform makes money by repeatedly launching tokens without improving outcomes for users, and named Robinhood as a competitor.

The platform itself is also looking for a new story. Its perpetuals product saw $25.3 million in trading volume on November 5, with nearly 1,200 daily active traders—the busiest day since launch. Alon posted on X looking for three business development hires, and for the first time publicly included prediction markets in the strategy. On November 9, trading moved to the new Elysium mainnet. Valour listed a PUMP ETP in Sweden, making it available to buy through brokerage accounts.

Two other matters remain unresolved. A class-action lawsuit filed in January alleges that tokens on the platform are unregistered securities; the case is still pending. The fee wallet has sold a cumulative 882.4 million SOL, and November unlocks are continuing at an increasing pace.

My take is that Pump.fun’s business is fine; the problem is that its success isn’t translating into the token price. After $500 million has been burned, the token is still trading below its launch price. That shows buybacks can’t support a token with no dividends and no meaningful governance rights. Two things to watch next: whether perpetuals and prediction markets can attract volume after launching on Elysium, and whether buybacks can absorb circulating supply once November’s unlocks are complete. Until then, holding PUMP won’t get you a share of the platform’s earnings.

With buybacks ongoing and unlocks continuing, which do you think will give way first?

#PUMP #Pumpfun #Solana #Meme币 #项目拆解 $PUMP

—— Web3 retail investor Xiaokai

This article represents only my personal views and does not constitute investment advice. Data sources: CoinGecko, DefiLlama, CoinStats, SolanaFloor, and public reports. Prices were recorded at the time of publication; market conditions can change at any time. Please assess the risks for yourself.