Last night, when the nonfarm payrolls numbers came out, I stared at the screen in disbelief for a few seconds: 165,000, versus expectations of just 65,000. They also revised August and September up by a combined 84,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. With numbers like these on the table, the probability of a December rate hike jumped straight from 67% to 77%.
But the bond market’s reaction was more interesting than the numbers themselves. The 2-year yield rose 5.6 basis points to 4.514%, the 10-year rose just 2.6 basis points to 4.859%, and the 30-year, at 5.265%, moved only 1.2 basis points. The short end took the hardest hit, while the long end barely budged. Put another way, people believe that once the Fed hikes in December, it’ll be pretty much done—not that it’ll keep hiking all the way through the end of next year. Some have already moved their forecast for the final hike from June to April.
There’s another detail nobody wants to mention: average hourly earnings were up 3.1% year over year, lagging inflation for the seventh month in a row. The jobs numbers look great, but the purchasing power of wages is shrinking.
So I’m not surprised that $BTC is now moving sideways around 76,000. All the money is going toward covering interest payments—there’s no spare cash left to buy the dip. The CPI report on the 10th is the real test this week. #美联储 #US Treasuries
But the bond market’s reaction was more interesting than the numbers themselves. The 2-year yield rose 5.6 basis points to 4.514%, the 10-year rose just 2.6 basis points to 4.859%, and the 30-year, at 5.265%, moved only 1.2 basis points. The short end took the hardest hit, while the long end barely budged. Put another way, people believe that once the Fed hikes in December, it’ll be pretty much done—not that it’ll keep hiking all the way through the end of next year. Some have already moved their forecast for the final hike from June to April.
There’s another detail nobody wants to mention: average hourly earnings were up 3.1% year over year, lagging inflation for the seventh month in a row. The jobs numbers look great, but the purchasing power of wages is shrinking.
So I’m not surprised that $BTC is now moving sideways around 76,000. All the money is going toward covering interest payments—there’s no spare cash left to buy the dip. The CPI report on the 10th is the real test this week. #美联储 #US Treasuries