Next week: a data-packed week to turn things around! A quick look at the trends for Bitcoin and gold: up or down?
In the blink of an eye, it’s the Winter Solstice again. After the Winter Solstice, winter truly begins, and then it’s Chinese New Year! Sometimes I marvel at how quickly time flies, but when I suddenly look back, one year after another, one day after another—the days really do pass so quickly! Once you step away from the ups and downs and battles of the candlestick charts, all that remains is the calm of everyday life!
Last week, market volatility was still very pronounced. Bitcoin and gold both went on a major roller-coaster ride: Bitcoin surged to a high of 81,000, and gold reached 4,140, but both quickly turned around and plunged ahead of the high-pressure nonfarm payrolls report. It was quite a dramatic ride. The report showed an increase of 165,000 jobs, wages at 3.1 and 0.4, and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1. Overall, the data was decidedly bearish. After its release, expectations of a Fed rate hike in December rose once again. Yet despite this, we didn’t see a major sell-off. Bitcoin held above 75,000, while gold dipped to 4,027 before falling and then rebounding to close at 4,070! The market’s reaction has left many of you puzzled again: will prices rise or fall next week? Here’s my conclusion!
The data was extremely bearish, but the market didn’t move down. There are two reasons:
1. Before the data came out, the market had already priced in extremely strong nonfarm payrolls based on the ADP report. It had already given back its early-week gains on Thursday, and started falling before the data was released!
2. After the data came out, the market took another leg down, suggesting the bearish news had been priced in. Also, Bitcoin seems to be under market manipulation. In theory, data like this should have pushed it down to 73,800. Gold also showed a strong sell-off, which is typical of how those predatory market makers operate!
Against this backdrop, there are still plenty of key data releases next week. The US CPI report on Tuesday evening is the most important one, and will set the tone for gold and crypto markets for the whole week. PPI, initial jobless claims, and officials’ speeches will provide supporting confirmation of expectations around Fed rate cuts or hikes. Personally, I expect CPI to be very strong as well. In that case, expectations of a Fed rate hike will grow, and the market should continue to sell off!
Also, from a technical perspective, sentiment around Bitcoin is still relatively weak. On the weekly chart, it has closed lower week after week since 86,800, and none of its several rebounds have managed to hold. The price action is showing signs of returning to the pattern of the sharp drop on November 10, 2025. In particular, after Trump loses the US midterm elections, his power will gradually be sidelined. Much of the previous bull run in crypto was probably driven by his support. Now that its biggest backer has fallen, it’s also uncertain whether the US crypto reserve plan will still go ahead. So I suggest going short and bearish across the board in the sectors we cover. This time, I think we could see 63,800; if the sell-off is more severe, then 45,888! Both swing and long-term trades are worth considering!
Now, a word about gold. It already completed its rebound last week. The biggest factors weighing on it right now are still high oil prices and the threat of a Fed rate hike hanging over the market. Rate-hike expectations have risen again, so gold may face some volatility in the short term. After several consecutive weekly pullbacks, the broader trend is still bullish, but in the short term, the market is still ranging between 4,200 and 3,850. And after the nonfarm payrolls report, the sector is leaning weak. Don’t let the current short-term rebound throw you off track. I suggest focusing on selling rallies next week. Early next week, you could look to short in the 4,085–4,100 area, targeting a pullback to around 3,860!
All right, that’s all for now. It’s the winter solstice! The weather is cold, and losing money makes people’s hearts even colder. Once I’m through this busy spell, I’ll restart my livestreams and be there for you, bringing you some warmth! How many of you are still waiting for the Ultraman livestream? Let me know in the comments! #非农就业数据推升加息预期 #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 $BTC