Yesterday’s nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, triple expectations. Looking back, my comment earlier that day that “the odds of a rate hike are nearing 80%” now seems conservative—the market is currently pricing in about a 75% chance of a December hike. But the real test isn’t yesterday; it’s next Tuesday.
At 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 10, the U.S. October CPI report drops. In plain English: how much did U.S. prices rise in October? Expectations are +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, while the Cleveland Fed’s real-time estimate for core CPI is 0.21%. Don’t dismiss that 0.1 percentage point: core CPI was 0.3% in both August and September. Another 0.3% on Tuesday would make it three months in a row, telling the Fed inflation hasn’t cooled off enough and sending the odds of a rate hike straight toward 100%. Conversely, a 0.2% reading would give expectations some breathing room.
This is also the last CPI report before the December 9 rate decision; November’s report won’t come out until December 10, after the vote. There’s another oddity: this time there’s no year-over-year figure because the government shutdown last October prevented price data from being collected.
$BTC is now around 76,000, grinding along near the 50-week moving average at 75,559. ETFs saw another $430 million in outflows on Thursday. Personal opinion only; not investment advice.
Will Tuesday’s core CPI be a third straight 0.3%, or cool to 0.2%? Pick a side in the comments.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #BTC #CryptoNews
At 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 10, the U.S. October CPI report drops. In plain English: how much did U.S. prices rise in October? Expectations are +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, while the Cleveland Fed’s real-time estimate for core CPI is 0.21%. Don’t dismiss that 0.1 percentage point: core CPI was 0.3% in both August and September. Another 0.3% on Tuesday would make it three months in a row, telling the Fed inflation hasn’t cooled off enough and sending the odds of a rate hike straight toward 100%. Conversely, a 0.2% reading would give expectations some breathing room.
This is also the last CPI report before the December 9 rate decision; November’s report won’t come out until December 10, after the vote. There’s another oddity: this time there’s no year-over-year figure because the government shutdown last October prevented price data from being collected.
$BTC is now around 76,000, grinding along near the 50-week moving average at 75,559. ETFs saw another $430 million in outflows on Thursday. Personal opinion only; not investment advice.
Will Tuesday’s core CPI be a third straight 0.3%, or cool to 0.2%? Pick a side in the comments.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #BTC #CryptoNews
