U.S. stocks and crypto have been a damn roller coaster these past couple of days～
After the Democrats scored a big win in the midterms on Thursday, the market suddenly started worrying about AI regulation and data centers getting bottlenecked. The Nasdaq got slammed 5.5% in a day, the Philly Semiconductor Index took a direct hit, plunging over 12% in a single session, and the Magnificent Seven lost a trillion dollars in market value all at once. Even the little bit of memory and optical communications stocks I’m holding got dragged down 😭
Friday was a chance to catch our breath, with a slight rebound: the Nasdaq clawed back 1.09%, the Philly Semiconductor Index bounced 4.21%, AMD popped more than ten points, and Nvidia rose nearly 3%. But the Nasdaq still fell 3.37% for the week, its fourth straight weekly decline. This rebound hasn’t brought the trend back at all.
On the macro front, the jobs report blew expectations out of the water: 165,000 jobs added in October, nearly triple expectations, with unemployment at 4.1%. The odds of a December rate hike shot up to around 80%, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.86%. Oil also took a serious beating, with Brent down nearly 17% for the week. Gold rose this time, but the market action was pretty choppy.
And then there’s crypto—nothing was spared, it got hit just the same. Bitcoin is stuck around $76,000, grinding away: it falls when U.S. stocks fall, but doesn’t follow when they rise. Spot BTC ETFs saw about $430 million in outflows on Thursday alone, liquidations across the market topped $1 billion, and with liquidity thin over the weekend, the risk of sharp wicks is still there.
Anyway, Orange Bro thinks the long-term AI story isn’t dead, but the short-term pricing factors have changed: regulation and rate hikes are squeezing from both sides. Keep an eye on CPI and chipmakers’ earnings next Tuesday. If CPI comes in hot again, high-valuation stocks and crypto will both take another hit. 😭
After the Democrats scored a big win in the midterms on Thursday, the market suddenly started worrying about AI regulation and data centers getting bottlenecked. The Nasdaq got slammed 5.5% in a day, the Philly Semiconductor Index took a direct hit, plunging over 12% in a single session, and the Magnificent Seven lost a trillion dollars in market value all at once. Even the little bit of memory and optical communications stocks I’m holding got dragged down 😭
Friday was a chance to catch our breath, with a slight rebound: the Nasdaq clawed back 1.09%, the Philly Semiconductor Index bounced 4.21%, AMD popped more than ten points, and Nvidia rose nearly 3%. But the Nasdaq still fell 3.37% for the week, its fourth straight weekly decline. This rebound hasn’t brought the trend back at all.
On the macro front, the jobs report blew expectations out of the water: 165,000 jobs added in October, nearly triple expectations, with unemployment at 4.1%. The odds of a December rate hike shot up to around 80%, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.86%. Oil also took a serious beating, with Brent down nearly 17% for the week. Gold rose this time, but the market action was pretty choppy.
And then there’s crypto—nothing was spared, it got hit just the same. Bitcoin is stuck around $76,000, grinding away: it falls when U.S. stocks fall, but doesn’t follow when they rise. Spot BTC ETFs saw about $430 million in outflows on Thursday alone, liquidations across the market topped $1 billion, and with liquidity thin over the weekend, the risk of sharp wicks is still there.
Anyway, Orange Bro thinks the long-term AI story isn’t dead, but the short-term pricing factors have changed: regulation and rate hikes are squeezing from both sides. Keep an eye on CPI and chipmakers’ earnings next Tuesday. If CPI comes in hot again, high-valuation stocks and crypto will both take another hit. 😭