Nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, versus expectations of just 65,000—a 100,000 miss. That’s not “better than expected”; it means the forecasting system failed.
Expectations of a December Fed rate hike are heating up again, with three chair-level figures all turning hawkish at once.
But what’s really worth watching isn’t the number—it’s a remark nobody has elaborated on.
Musalem of the St. Louis Fed said: We need to be alert to AI infrastructure construction adding to inflation in the short term.
Translation: For the first time, officials have explicitly identified “AI capital spending” as a source of inflation.
That directly pulls the rug out from under the AI sector. The market had been betting that “AI spending is investment, so it doesn’t count as inflation.” Now the Fed itself has included that spending in the inflation equation.
The backdrop: The midterm elections sent AI skeptics into the corridors of power; several states have paused data center construction; tech stocks lost $2.5 trillion in a week; and Anthropic’s valuation was slashed by $500 billion.
Now look at crypto: BTC at 76,084, up 0.73% in 24 hours—not following the drop.
But the Fear and Greed Index is at 25: extreme fear.
With rate-hike expectations rising and the AI narrative disrupted, crypto has neither a reason to rally nor a trigger for a crash. It’s just grinding along in fear at 25.
This kind of bottoming-out period is painful, but historically, when fear has fallen below 25, the market has looked pretty good in hindsight.
How much longer do you think this bottoming-out period will last? #非农就业数据推升加息预期 #美联储 #BTC
Expectations of a December Fed rate hike are heating up again, with three chair-level figures all turning hawkish at once.
But what’s really worth watching isn’t the number—it’s a remark nobody has elaborated on.
Musalem of the St. Louis Fed said: We need to be alert to AI infrastructure construction adding to inflation in the short term.
Translation: For the first time, officials have explicitly identified “AI capital spending” as a source of inflation.
That directly pulls the rug out from under the AI sector. The market had been betting that “AI spending is investment, so it doesn’t count as inflation.” Now the Fed itself has included that spending in the inflation equation.
The backdrop: The midterm elections sent AI skeptics into the corridors of power; several states have paused data center construction; tech stocks lost $2.5 trillion in a week; and Anthropic’s valuation was slashed by $500 billion.
Now look at crypto: BTC at 76,084, up 0.73% in 24 hours—not following the drop.
But the Fear and Greed Index is at 25: extreme fear.
With rate-hike expectations rising and the AI narrative disrupted, crypto has neither a reason to rally nor a trigger for a crash. It’s just grinding along in fear at 25.
This kind of bottoming-out period is painful, but historically, when fear has fallen below 25, the market has looked pretty good in hindsight.
How much longer do you think this bottoming-out period will last? #非农就业数据推升加息预期 #美联储 #BTC
