Three things this week: money got more expensive, stocks dragged crypto down, and the backers changed.
① U.S. jobs rose by 165,000 in October, versus expectations of just 65,000. Rate cuts are off the table, interest rates remain high, and both the dollar and Treasury yields rose. When money gets more expensive, non-yielding assets are the first to get drained. U.S. stocks rebounded Friday, but BTC didn’t follow. That’s more important to watch than the candlesticks.
② The steep drop on the 5th wasn’t an implosion—it was spillover. First, BTC was pushed to $80,000 on hopes of crypto-friendly policies. Then doubts over AI returns sent the Nasdaq down 5.52% and chip stocks down 12%, while the fear index surged to 70. Once leverage unwound, $1.24 billion was liquidated in a single day, forcing 230,000 traders out. ETFs saw $870 million in outflows over four days.
③ The valuation anchor is being recalculated: Democrats captured both chambers and want to expand the SEC’s powers and restrict officials from trading crypto, pushing expectations for looser rules out to 2028. The fallout from the $6.3 billion Binance theft is still unfolding, and $3.64 billion flowed out on the first day withdrawals reopened. Mainland China is also investigating unauthorized Solana marketing in Shanghai.
In a nutshell: prices used to be supported by “easy money + looser regulation.” Now both are moving in the opposite direction. #非农就业数据推升加息预期 #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 #美国拟收紧数据中心监管，AI扩张或面临新约束
① U.S. jobs rose by 165,000 in October, versus expectations of just 65,000. Rate cuts are off the table, interest rates remain high, and both the dollar and Treasury yields rose. When money gets more expensive, non-yielding assets are the first to get drained. U.S. stocks rebounded Friday, but BTC didn’t follow. That’s more important to watch than the candlesticks.
② The steep drop on the 5th wasn’t an implosion—it was spillover. First, BTC was pushed to $80,000 on hopes of crypto-friendly policies. Then doubts over AI returns sent the Nasdaq down 5.52% and chip stocks down 12%, while the fear index surged to 70. Once leverage unwound, $1.24 billion was liquidated in a single day, forcing 230,000 traders out. ETFs saw $870 million in outflows over four days.
③ The valuation anchor is being recalculated: Democrats captured both chambers and want to expand the SEC’s powers and restrict officials from trading crypto, pushing expectations for looser rules out to 2028. The fallout from the $6.3 billion Binance theft is still unfolding, and $3.64 billion flowed out on the first day withdrawals reopened. Mainland China is also investigating unauthorized Solana marketing in Shanghai.
In a nutshell: prices used to be supported by “easy money + looser regulation.” Now both are moving in the opposite direction. #非农就业数据推升加息预期 #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 #美国拟收紧数据中心监管，AI扩张或面临新约束