Behind the $33.242 billion in revenue over the first three quarters is an $895.4 billion computing-power bill. That bill just happens to loom over the IPO window it wants to catch. The timing could hardly be more awkward, and the resilience of its expansion hinges on this very issue.
Revenue for the first three quarters was $33.242 billion, up 1,206% year over year. Usage-based revenue accounted for 79.1%, while the U.S. market made up another 70.6%. International revenue was only $9.772 billion, and subscription revenue just $6.936 billion. Growth is concentrated, and so are the customers. The business may look substantial, but its structure is narrow. $ETH
But growth is slowing. Revenue was $4.7 billion in the first quarter, $11.6 billion in the second, and $16.956 billion in the third. Sequential growth fell from a more-than-doubling pace to just 46%—a clear loss of momentum. Even more striking, after posting its first-ever profit of $974 million in the second quarter, it swung back to a $567 million loss in the third. Profitability has yet to prove consistent. $SOL
Cash is burning faster. Computing and infrastructure costs surged 382% year over year, pushing the expense ratio back up to 58%. This spending did not begin this year; it is being driven by the gradual fulfillment of multiyear commitments, so it is not a temporary issue. And the roughly $146.6 billion in cash on hand at the end of September looks meager next to $895.4 billion in procurement and lease commitments, almost all of them tied to computing power. Those commitments also stretch out over as long as 20 years. $BNB
The net loss for the first three quarters was $104.039 billion, most of it from non-cash accounting adjustments. On an adjusted basis, the business still earned $4.081 billion, supported by $2.463 billion in adjusted profit for the third quarter alone. But being close to profitable and having proven that you can remain profitable are two different things. The market does not want “almost”; it wants a consistent track record that has already been proven.
So the question comes back to this: should it go public now, trading a financial report that is still slowing and has returned to a loss for a valuation that may be cut—or wait longer and bet that the window will stay open? It is a dilemma with no standard answer, and the market will not make the call for it.
Personal opinion only; not investment advice. You are responsible for any gains or losses.
#估值承压下Anthropic还能如期上市吗
Revenue for the first three quarters was $33.242 billion, up 1,206% year over year. Usage-based revenue accounted for 79.1%, while the U.S. market made up another 70.6%. International revenue was only $9.772 billion, and subscription revenue just $6.936 billion. Growth is concentrated, and so are the customers. The business may look substantial, but its structure is narrow. $ETH
But growth is slowing. Revenue was $4.7 billion in the first quarter, $11.6 billion in the second, and $16.956 billion in the third. Sequential growth fell from a more-than-doubling pace to just 46%—a clear loss of momentum. Even more striking, after posting its first-ever profit of $974 million in the second quarter, it swung back to a $567 million loss in the third. Profitability has yet to prove consistent. $SOL
Cash is burning faster. Computing and infrastructure costs surged 382% year over year, pushing the expense ratio back up to 58%. This spending did not begin this year; it is being driven by the gradual fulfillment of multiyear commitments, so it is not a temporary issue. And the roughly $146.6 billion in cash on hand at the end of September looks meager next to $895.4 billion in procurement and lease commitments, almost all of them tied to computing power. Those commitments also stretch out over as long as 20 years. $BNB
The net loss for the first three quarters was $104.039 billion, most of it from non-cash accounting adjustments. On an adjusted basis, the business still earned $4.081 billion, supported by $2.463 billion in adjusted profit for the third quarter alone. But being close to profitable and having proven that you can remain profitable are two different things. The market does not want “almost”; it wants a consistent track record that has already been proven.
So the question comes back to this: should it go public now, trading a financial report that is still slowing and has returned to a loss for a valuation that may be cut—or wait longer and bet that the window will stay open? It is a dilemma with no standard answer, and the market will not make the call for it.
Personal opinion only; not investment advice. You are responsible for any gains or losses.
#估值承压下Anthropic还能如期上市吗
