What exactly is this 75,800 line?
At 15:00, $BTC was around $75,973, up 0.4% over 24 hours, while $ETH was around $2,244, up 0.7% (CoinGecko). Over the past 24 hours, BTC has just been grinding between $75,105 and $76,249, with volatility under 1.5%—it looks calm, but this level beneath our feet is critical.
Three levels converge around 75,800: the 50-week moving average at about $75,580 (Yahoo Finance analysis), the short-term holder cost basis at about $75,839 (Bitfinex data), and the order-book flip level at 75,750. The price is now sitting right on top of all three, which means the entire line of defense is just one layer of paper thick.
Looking up: the 100-day moving average at about $77,060 is the first hurdle, followed by a sell wall at $77,450 (407 BTC in sell orders). Looking down: there’s a buy wall of 515 BTC at $74,300, and the 200-day moving average is near $73,189. The three dashed lines on the chart are those three moving-average/cost-basis levels mentioned above.
The funding rate is currently +0.01%/8 hours. Longs are paying shorts a little interest, suggesting no one is in a rush to pile into longs. On the ETF front, there was another $430 million in outflows on November 5 (SoSoValue data, with $200 million from Fidelity FBTC and $105 million from BlackRock IBIT), bringing cumulative outflows for the first four days of November to about $870 million. The Fear and Greed Index is at 25: extreme fear.
My decision (a continuation and refinement of the 13:00 short-selling plan; this is my view and a plan with a stop-loss, not a position already opened): I’m still bearish. The 75,800–76,100 range remains my short-entry zone, and the current price is right in it. The stop-loss remains above 77,500; the first target is 73,200 (take half off when reached), and the second target remains 68,000.
Two trigger levels to refine the plan: if a 4-hour candle closes above 76,250 and price holds above 75,839, I’ll admit I was wrong and close the short first. Conversely, if price breaks below 75,580 (the 50-week moving average) and loses 74,250, the short can be increased, targeting 73,200. With 100x leverage, only use a very small portion of your total capital as margin.
Do you think this 75,800 line will hold tonight? Share your thoughts in the comments.
At 15:00, $BTC was around $75,973, up 0.4% over 24 hours, while $ETH was around $2,244, up 0.7% (CoinGecko). Over the past 24 hours, BTC has just been grinding between $75,105 and $76,249, with volatility under 1.5%—it looks calm, but this level beneath our feet is critical.
Three levels converge around 75,800: the 50-week moving average at about $75,580 (Yahoo Finance analysis), the short-term holder cost basis at about $75,839 (Bitfinex data), and the order-book flip level at 75,750. The price is now sitting right on top of all three, which means the entire line of defense is just one layer of paper thick.
Looking up: the 100-day moving average at about $77,060 is the first hurdle, followed by a sell wall at $77,450 (407 BTC in sell orders). Looking down: there’s a buy wall of 515 BTC at $74,300, and the 200-day moving average is near $73,189. The three dashed lines on the chart are those three moving-average/cost-basis levels mentioned above.
The funding rate is currently +0.01%/8 hours. Longs are paying shorts a little interest, suggesting no one is in a rush to pile into longs. On the ETF front, there was another $430 million in outflows on November 5 (SoSoValue data, with $200 million from Fidelity FBTC and $105 million from BlackRock IBIT), bringing cumulative outflows for the first four days of November to about $870 million. The Fear and Greed Index is at 25: extreme fear.
My decision (a continuation and refinement of the 13:00 short-selling plan; this is my view and a plan with a stop-loss, not a position already opened): I’m still bearish. The 75,800–76,100 range remains my short-entry zone, and the current price is right in it. The stop-loss remains above 77,500; the first target is 73,200 (take half off when reached), and the second target remains 68,000.
Two trigger levels to refine the plan: if a 4-hour candle closes above 76,250 and price holds above 75,839, I’ll admit I was wrong and close the short first. Conversely, if price breaks below 75,580 (the 50-week moving average) and loses 74,250, the short can be increased, targeting 73,200. With 100x leverage, only use a very small portion of your total capital as margin.
Do you think this 75,800 line will hold tonight? Share your thoughts in the comments.
