A few days ago, my wife heard from her best friend that Micron was a buy. I opened the chart, took one look, and said, “Wait for 650.”
A few days ago, my wife came home excitedly and told me, “A friend said Micron (MU) has fallen a lot and is half off now. We can buy some!”
She usually focuses on Taiwan stocks, so it’s rare to see her this fired up about U.S. stocks. Being a seasoned old husband accustomed to the wild ups and downs of crypto, I quietly opened the candlestick chart for her.
It would’ve been better not to look. The stock had plunged from a high of 1255 to around 680. I turned to her and said, “Your friend must have nerves of steel. That drop is almost as brutal as Bitcoin in our portfolio.”
But in all fairness, even though Micron has been marked down to the price of a half-off bento, its fundamentals still have plenty going for them.
I occasionally take on interior design projects, so I know better than most that “a deposit only counts once it’s in your hands.” Micron has signed a stack of long-term contracts (SCAs), with customers putting down hundreds of billions of dollars in actual cash deposits to secure most of its 2027 capacity. And with AI demand for HBM capacity looking like a black hole, this isn’t like the old memory stocks that depended purely on the ups and downs of the cycle.
If the company has so much going for it, why has the stock been hammered? Because Wall Street big players are worried about a “cycle reversal.” A lot of new-factory capacity is set to come online in 2027 and 2028. If AI capital spending slows by then and capacity floods the market, prices could crash faster than someone falling out of love.
After reading all that, I closed the app and told my wife:
“There are no risk-free, no-brainer bargains falling from the sky. If you really want to buy, wait until it’s around 650, then go in with a small position and test the waters. If it breaks below that, cut your losses. Don’t fall in love with a stock.”
Don’t blindly jump on the bandwagon just because other people say something is exciting. Invest only as much as your nerves can handle, and most importantly, leave yourself some room for error.
What about you? If you’re thinking of catching this falling knife, does 650 look like an attractive entry point? Or do you think there’s still another floor below?
#純情老郎君的靠北日常 #美光 #美股投資
$MUB
#BinancePick
A few days ago, my wife came home excitedly and told me, “A friend said Micron (MU) has fallen a lot and is half off now. We can buy some!”
She usually focuses on Taiwan stocks, so it’s rare to see her this fired up about U.S. stocks. Being a seasoned old husband accustomed to the wild ups and downs of crypto, I quietly opened the candlestick chart for her.
It would’ve been better not to look. The stock had plunged from a high of 1255 to around 680. I turned to her and said, “Your friend must have nerves of steel. That drop is almost as brutal as Bitcoin in our portfolio.”
But in all fairness, even though Micron has been marked down to the price of a half-off bento, its fundamentals still have plenty going for them.
I occasionally take on interior design projects, so I know better than most that “a deposit only counts once it’s in your hands.” Micron has signed a stack of long-term contracts (SCAs), with customers putting down hundreds of billions of dollars in actual cash deposits to secure most of its 2027 capacity. And with AI demand for HBM capacity looking like a black hole, this isn’t like the old memory stocks that depended purely on the ups and downs of the cycle.
If the company has so much going for it, why has the stock been hammered? Because Wall Street big players are worried about a “cycle reversal.” A lot of new-factory capacity is set to come online in 2027 and 2028. If AI capital spending slows by then and capacity floods the market, prices could crash faster than someone falling out of love.
After reading all that, I closed the app and told my wife:
“There are no risk-free, no-brainer bargains falling from the sky. If you really want to buy, wait until it’s around 650, then go in with a small position and test the waters. If it breaks below that, cut your losses. Don’t fall in love with a stock.”
Don’t blindly jump on the bandwagon just because other people say something is exciting. Invest only as much as your nerves can handle, and most importantly, leave yourself some room for error.
What about you? If you’re thinking of catching this falling knife, does 650 look like an attractive entry point? Or do you think there’s still another floor below?
#純情老郎君的靠北日常 #美光 #美股投資
$MUB
#BinancePick