11.7 $BTC Analysis
You went long yesterday and caught at least some of the move, right?
The market had previously treated expectations of rate cuts as a source of support for Bitcoin. But U.S. nonfarm payrolls released on November 6 showed 165,000 new jobs in October, far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. A strong labor market means the economy can withstand tighter policy, directly reducing the urgency of easing liquidity. After the payrolls report, market expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December rose from 66.9% to 76.8%. The “expectation of looser liquidity” that risk assets such as Bitcoin need most has been temporarily shut out. This is the fundamental backdrop to the current rebound’s lack of staying power.
There was indeed buying support near the low of 74,800, and the price recovered to 75,870, but this looks more like a technical bounce after forced selling was concentrated and released. A sell wall sits near 76,309, accounting for 91.7% of sell-side limit orders. This means that any rebound reaching this area will encounter active selling pressure. The current price has found some breathing room near the lower Bollinger Band, but the MACD bearish crossover remains in place. Bearish momentum is no longer accelerating, but there is no sign of a reversal either. Only a successful break above the 76,300–76,500 range would allow the price to continue higher. Consider going long around 74,500–75,200, with an initial target of 76,300–77,000; if that level breaks, look for further upside. Otherwise, if the price meets resistance, consider shorting #BTC #ETH #BTC走势分析
You went long yesterday and caught at least some of the move, right?
The market had previously treated expectations of rate cuts as a source of support for Bitcoin. But U.S. nonfarm payrolls released on November 6 showed 165,000 new jobs in October, far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. A strong labor market means the economy can withstand tighter policy, directly reducing the urgency of easing liquidity. After the payrolls report, market expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December rose from 66.9% to 76.8%. The “expectation of looser liquidity” that risk assets such as Bitcoin need most has been temporarily shut out. This is the fundamental backdrop to the current rebound’s lack of staying power.
There was indeed buying support near the low of 74,800, and the price recovered to 75,870, but this looks more like a technical bounce after forced selling was concentrated and released. A sell wall sits near 76,309, accounting for 91.7% of sell-side limit orders. This means that any rebound reaching this area will encounter active selling pressure. The current price has found some breathing room near the lower Bollinger Band, but the MACD bearish crossover remains in place. Bearish momentum is no longer accelerating, but there is no sign of a reversal either. Only a successful break above the 76,300–76,500 range would allow the price to continue higher. Consider going long around 74,500–75,200, with an initial target of 76,300–77,000; if that level breaks, look for further upside. Otherwise, if the price meets resistance, consider shorting #BTC #ETH #BTC走势分析
