BTC Returns to $75K Trending Topic | Fund Flow Table Filled In, Turns Negative | I’m Not Chasing the Bounce
My stance is cautious. Binance Square is showing the exact trending topic “#BitcoinRebounds$75KAsChipsLead,” but popularity cannot replace confirmation from fund flows. The November 6 row in Farside’s U.S. spot Bitcoin fund table has been updated since I checked it this morning with the previously missing IBIT data: IBIT saw $403 million in net outflows, FBTC had $42.8 million in net inflows, BITB saw $20.5 million in outflows, ARKB $20.1 million, and GBTC $11.1 million, while the remaining funds are currently listed at zero. The table shows total net outflows of $411.9 million. The $8.9 million in outflows reported this morning was preliminary data missing IBIT and must not be added to the new total.
To verify this change: Farside’s table lists all twelve products for November 6, column by column, and provides a total; BlackRock’s IBIT website already has net asset value and shares outstanding data for November 6. The BlackRock page does not directly provide dollar net flows on the same basis as Farside, so the $403 million figure is still described according to Farside’s methodology. The number may change if the issuer later revises its data or another data source is updated. The table may also be updated further.
In terms of how fund flows work, fund redemptions may affect spot demand through the creation and redemption process, but a single day of net outflows does not mean an equivalent amount of BTC was sold on the spot market at that exact time. It does, however, suggest that institutional channels during U.S. trading hours did not provide same-direction flow confirmation for the rebound. Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate was 4.1%; on October 28, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. Stronger employment could change market bets on future interest rates, but that is an expectation, not an actual rate hike by the central bank. Strategy’s website still shows holdings of 849327 BTC, and I have not seen any company disclosure that would support announcing an additional purchase on November 7.
Price action also shows that the rebound still needs confirmation. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was around $75,801.90 on Kraken, with today’s open at $75,741.60, an intraday low of $75,692.60, and a high of $76,008.50; the rolling 24-hour low was $74,790 and the high was $76,258.10. BTC is currently above $75,000, but has not surpassed the 24-hour high. The market has recovered from its low to around $75,000, but this rise cannot simply be attributed to chip stocks or any single policy headline. If a break above $76,008.50 fails and the price falls back below $75,700, my view of the short-term recovery will turn weaker; if it then loses $74,790, the rebound structure is invalidated.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out for now, with 0% exposure, and would only consider a small spot long. I would enter with no more than 0.4% of total capital, without leverage, only after two one-hour candles close above $76,258, followed by a pullback that holds $76,000 and trading volume no lower than the average hourly volume of the previous three candles. The first target is $76,800, where I would reduce the position by half; the second target is $77,500, where I would close the remaining position nearby. I would set a hard stop at $75,480; if the price breaks below $74,790 before entry, I would cancel the plan outright. I would first recheck the data if fund flows are revised or a policy announcement is backed by an official document. Without the conditions being met, I would never describe a trade as executed or profitable.
#BitcoinRebounds$75KAsChipsLead #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is cautious. Binance Square is showing the exact trending topic “#BitcoinRebounds$75KAsChipsLead,” but popularity cannot replace confirmation from fund flows. The November 6 row in Farside’s U.S. spot Bitcoin fund table has been updated since I checked it this morning with the previously missing IBIT data: IBIT saw $403 million in net outflows, FBTC had $42.8 million in net inflows, BITB saw $20.5 million in outflows, ARKB $20.1 million, and GBTC $11.1 million, while the remaining funds are currently listed at zero. The table shows total net outflows of $411.9 million. The $8.9 million in outflows reported this morning was preliminary data missing IBIT and must not be added to the new total.
To verify this change: Farside’s table lists all twelve products for November 6, column by column, and provides a total; BlackRock’s IBIT website already has net asset value and shares outstanding data for November 6. The BlackRock page does not directly provide dollar net flows on the same basis as Farside, so the $403 million figure is still described according to Farside’s methodology. The number may change if the issuer later revises its data or another data source is updated. The table may also be updated further.
In terms of how fund flows work, fund redemptions may affect spot demand through the creation and redemption process, but a single day of net outflows does not mean an equivalent amount of BTC was sold on the spot market at that exact time. It does, however, suggest that institutional channels during U.S. trading hours did not provide same-direction flow confirmation for the rebound. Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate was 4.1%; on October 28, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. Stronger employment could change market bets on future interest rates, but that is an expectation, not an actual rate hike by the central bank. Strategy’s website still shows holdings of 849327 BTC, and I have not seen any company disclosure that would support announcing an additional purchase on November 7.
Price action also shows that the rebound still needs confirmation. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was around $75,801.90 on Kraken, with today’s open at $75,741.60, an intraday low of $75,692.60, and a high of $76,008.50; the rolling 24-hour low was $74,790 and the high was $76,258.10. BTC is currently above $75,000, but has not surpassed the 24-hour high. The market has recovered from its low to around $75,000, but this rise cannot simply be attributed to chip stocks or any single policy headline. If a break above $76,008.50 fails and the price falls back below $75,700, my view of the short-term recovery will turn weaker; if it then loses $74,790, the rebound structure is invalidated.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out for now, with 0% exposure, and would only consider a small spot long. I would enter with no more than 0.4% of total capital, without leverage, only after two one-hour candles close above $76,258, followed by a pullback that holds $76,000 and trading volume no lower than the average hourly volume of the previous three candles. The first target is $76,800, where I would reduce the position by half; the second target is $77,500, where I would close the remaining position nearby. I would set a hard stop at $75,480; if the price breaks below $74,790 before entry, I would cancel the plan outright. I would first recheck the data if fund flows are revised or a policy announcement is backed by an official document. Without the conditions being met, I would never describe a trade as executed or profitable.
#BitcoinRebounds$75KAsChipsLead #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
