Funds are still flowing out, but I feel like the worst of the pain may be behind us.
At 11:00 this morning (Beijing time): around $75,953, down 0.25% over 24 hours; around $2,244, up 0.14% (source: CoinGecko). Prices barely moved, but the fund flows are still telling a story: on November 5, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw combined net outflows of around $530 million (source: crypto-economy); the Fear & Greed Index was at 25, in the Extreme Fear zone (source: alternative.me). Put simply, institutions are pulling back and retail investors are scared—that’s the backdrop for the market right now.
But there’s one change worth noting: around $468 million in liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours (source: CoinGlass), far less than the $1.27 billion peak on November 6. The wave of forced liquidations is receding, which suggests a lot of leverage has already been flushed out. What’s left is mostly spot holders hanging on. Last night, BTC briefly touched a low of $74,888, so the $75,000 level is still holding for now. Looking lower, the 200-day moving average is around $73,239, while Wintermute has listed $73,000 and $68,000 as downside targets—these are the next levels I’m watching, not a guess about whether price will reach them.
The trending coins are interesting too: small-cap coins COGE surged 590% in a day and AKEDO rose 137%, with market caps of just over $18 million and $130 million, respectively. I stay away from these and treat them only as a sentiment gauge. When the broader market is in Extreme Fear but small caps are still taking turns rallying, it shows that speculative fervor hasn’t completely died out.
Trading plan (a plan, not an open position—I’m still flat): I’ll consider a small long position only if BTC gets back above $78,000 and holds, with a stop below $75,000; if it breaks below $75,000 and can’t reclaim it within an hour, I’ll stay flat and won’t buy the dip; if a rebound stalls between $79,000 and $80,000, I’ll consider a small short position, with a stop above $80,500; with 100x leverage, I’ll use only a very small portion of my total capital as margin. Invalidation condition: if the weekly candle closes below $75,000, my short-term range-bound view is invalidated, and I’ll look toward the $73,000 area. The next catalyst is next week’s U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index). I’m in no rush to trade before then.
Are you staying flat and waiting, or have you already started buying in batches around $75,000? Let’s talk in the comments.
At 11:00 this morning (Beijing time): around $75,953, down 0.25% over 24 hours; around $2,244, up 0.14% (source: CoinGecko). Prices barely moved, but the fund flows are still telling a story: on November 5, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw combined net outflows of around $530 million (source: crypto-economy); the Fear & Greed Index was at 25, in the Extreme Fear zone (source: alternative.me). Put simply, institutions are pulling back and retail investors are scared—that’s the backdrop for the market right now.
But there’s one change worth noting: around $468 million in liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours (source: CoinGlass), far less than the $1.27 billion peak on November 6. The wave of forced liquidations is receding, which suggests a lot of leverage has already been flushed out. What’s left is mostly spot holders hanging on. Last night, BTC briefly touched a low of $74,888, so the $75,000 level is still holding for now. Looking lower, the 200-day moving average is around $73,239, while Wintermute has listed $73,000 and $68,000 as downside targets—these are the next levels I’m watching, not a guess about whether price will reach them.
The trending coins are interesting too: small-cap coins COGE surged 590% in a day and AKEDO rose 137%, with market caps of just over $18 million and $130 million, respectively. I stay away from these and treat them only as a sentiment gauge. When the broader market is in Extreme Fear but small caps are still taking turns rallying, it shows that speculative fervor hasn’t completely died out.
Trading plan (a plan, not an open position—I’m still flat): I’ll consider a small long position only if BTC gets back above $78,000 and holds, with a stop below $75,000; if it breaks below $75,000 and can’t reclaim it within an hour, I’ll stay flat and won’t buy the dip; if a rebound stalls between $79,000 and $80,000, I’ll consider a small short position, with a stop above $80,500; with 100x leverage, I’ll use only a very small portion of my total capital as margin. Invalidation condition: if the weekly candle closes below $75,000, my short-term range-bound view is invalidated, and I’ll look toward the $73,000 area. The next catalyst is next week’s U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index). I’m in no rush to trade before then.
Are you staying flat and waiting, or have you already started buying in batches around $75,000? Let’s talk in the comments.
