Memory chips +360.5% vs. system chips +32.6%: South Korea’s October export data
South Korea’s October export data came out on November 1, with semiconductors alone accounting for nearly half of total exports.
Semiconductor exports reached $56.44 billion, up 259.4% year over year, exceeding $50 billion for the second consecutive month. Total exports were $115.28 billion, up 93.7% year over year—the largest annual increase in more than 50 years. The median forecast in a Reuters poll was 93.2%.
The divergence was within chips: memory chip exports reached $50.14 billion, surging 360.5% year over year and accounting for 89% of chip exports; system chip exports reached $5.71 billion, up just 32.6%. Computer exports reached $5.85 billion, up 496.6% year over year. Officials attributed this to investment in AI server infrastructure and demand for server SSDs.
Both volume and prices rose: the DDR5 reference price climbed from $40 in June to $50 in October, with export growth driven by increases in both volume and price. Cumulative exports from January to October reached $930 billion, surpassing $900 billion for the first time, up 60.6% year over year.
One caveat: October had two more working days than the same month last year, so the 93.7% increase does not mean production capacity or demand expanded by the same proportion.
The rise in memory prices isn’t a short-lived spike; AI servers are driving a huge surge in purchases of both memory and flash storage. Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital still have pricing power, and it’s on an upward trajectory. The real signal that would disprove this thesis would be the DDR5 reference price falling back below $40, or South Korean memory exports growing by less than 100% next month. SanDisk closed Friday at $835.06, up 3.55%, and is already leading the pack. If you’re considering chasing the rally, wait for a pullback; the short-term bullish case would only be shaken if it falls below the $800 round-number level.
$MU $SNDK
#半导体 #Memory chips
South Korea’s October export data came out on November 1, with semiconductors alone accounting for nearly half of total exports.
Semiconductor exports reached $56.44 billion, up 259.4% year over year, exceeding $50 billion for the second consecutive month. Total exports were $115.28 billion, up 93.7% year over year—the largest annual increase in more than 50 years. The median forecast in a Reuters poll was 93.2%.
The divergence was within chips: memory chip exports reached $50.14 billion, surging 360.5% year over year and accounting for 89% of chip exports; system chip exports reached $5.71 billion, up just 32.6%. Computer exports reached $5.85 billion, up 496.6% year over year. Officials attributed this to investment in AI server infrastructure and demand for server SSDs.
Both volume and prices rose: the DDR5 reference price climbed from $40 in June to $50 in October, with export growth driven by increases in both volume and price. Cumulative exports from January to October reached $930 billion, surpassing $900 billion for the first time, up 60.6% year over year.
One caveat: October had two more working days than the same month last year, so the 93.7% increase does not mean production capacity or demand expanded by the same proportion.
The rise in memory prices isn’t a short-lived spike; AI servers are driving a huge surge in purchases of both memory and flash storage. Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital still have pricing power, and it’s on an upward trajectory. The real signal that would disprove this thesis would be the DDR5 reference price falling back below $40, or South Korean memory exports growing by less than 100% next month. SanDisk closed Friday at $835.06, up 3.55%, and is already leading the pack. If you’re considering chasing the rally, wait for a pullback; the short-term bullish case would only be shaken if it falls below the $800 round-number level.
$MU $SNDK
#半导体 #Memory chips