Liquidation map: the structure has flipped compared with 11.5
#清算地图
Above: A break above 79,484 would trigger $1.823 billion in cumulative short liquidations across major CEXs.
Below: A drop below 72,152 would trigger $1.541 billion in cumulative long liquidations.
On 11.5, we wrote, “There’s not much to liquidate above, but plenty below”—at the time, there were only $337 million in shorts above, versus $919 million in longs below. Today, it’s the other way around: for the first time, the short liquidation fuel above exceeds the long liquidation minefield below, and 79,484 is only about 4.8% from the current price.
One level closer: a sell wall sits at 76,309, accounting for 91.7% of sell-side limit orders. Every rebound runs into it and gets pushed back. Below, 75,563 is the last intraday support. A daily close below it would put the Bollinger lower band at 74,880 to the test.
Whether 75,700 holds will determine which path the market takes today: if it holds, price could reach the sell wall around 76,300, with the heavy short-liquidation zone at 79,484 above that. If it fails, the long-liquidation minefield at 72,152 comes into view.
#清算地图
Above: A break above 79,484 would trigger $1.823 billion in cumulative short liquidations across major CEXs.
Below: A drop below 72,152 would trigger $1.541 billion in cumulative long liquidations.
On 11.5, we wrote, “There’s not much to liquidate above, but plenty below”—at the time, there were only $337 million in shorts above, versus $919 million in longs below. Today, it’s the other way around: for the first time, the short liquidation fuel above exceeds the long liquidation minefield below, and 79,484 is only about 4.8% from the current price.
One level closer: a sell wall sits at 76,309, accounting for 91.7% of sell-side limit orders. Every rebound runs into it and gets pushed back. Below, 75,563 is the last intraday support. A daily close below it would put the Bollinger lower band at 74,880 to the test.
Whether 75,700 holds will determine which path the market takes today: if it holds, price could reach the sell wall around 76,300, with the heavy short-liquidation zone at 79,484 above that. If it fails, the long-liquidation minefield at 72,152 comes into view.
