I watched this overnight move in $ZEC all night.
Yesterday it topped out at 1387.98. At 23:15, a 15-minute candle plunged to 1317.29, then a little over an hour later it was yanked back up to 1349.31. Up 3.077% over 24 hours, looking like nothing happened.
Not much of a rise.
What really set off alarm bells for me was that trading volume has been falling for three straight days: from 2.879 billion to 2.688 billion, then down to 2.489 billion.
The gap between price and volume keeps widening.
Price is sitting at the 86.19th percentile of its 20-day range. From 6 p.m. yesterday to 1 a.m. today, open interest only slipped from 442,178 contracts to 437,636, while notional value actually fell from 601 million to 584 million. The reservoir’s water level is rising, but the pipe bringing water in is getting narrower and narrower.
The funding rate is even more telling: in eight out of ten settlements, it hit the 0.01% cap, and in the other two it still wasn’t far from zero.
Now look at positioning: long accounts make up just 40.11%, while short accounts account for 59.89%.
There aren’t many traders willing to buy in at the 86.19th percentile in the first place, and retail traders are still betting on the downside.
Honestly, looking at these four figures together, my read is pretty clear: this move up came from shorts closing and buying back, with no new money coming in to support it. If fresh capital were really entering the market, would trading volume have contracted by 13.559% over three straight days?
Over the same period, $BTC fell 0.225%, while $ETH rose 0.243%. The broader market gave this asset no real momentum at all.
What do you all think?
#ZEC #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
These are personal trading-system notes and observations of market data, not investment advice.
Yesterday it topped out at 1387.98. At 23:15, a 15-minute candle plunged to 1317.29, then a little over an hour later it was yanked back up to 1349.31. Up 3.077% over 24 hours, looking like nothing happened.
Not much of a rise.
What really set off alarm bells for me was that trading volume has been falling for three straight days: from 2.879 billion to 2.688 billion, then down to 2.489 billion.
The gap between price and volume keeps widening.
Price is sitting at the 86.19th percentile of its 20-day range. From 6 p.m. yesterday to 1 a.m. today, open interest only slipped from 442,178 contracts to 437,636, while notional value actually fell from 601 million to 584 million. The reservoir’s water level is rising, but the pipe bringing water in is getting narrower and narrower.
The funding rate is even more telling: in eight out of ten settlements, it hit the 0.01% cap, and in the other two it still wasn’t far from zero.
Now look at positioning: long accounts make up just 40.11%, while short accounts account for 59.89%.
There aren’t many traders willing to buy in at the 86.19th percentile in the first place, and retail traders are still betting on the downside.
Honestly, looking at these four figures together, my read is pretty clear: this move up came from shorts closing and buying back, with no new money coming in to support it. If fresh capital were really entering the market, would trading volume have contracted by 13.559% over three straight days?
Over the same period, $BTC fell 0.225%, while $ETH rose 0.243%. The broader market gave this asset no real momentum at all.
What do you all think?
#ZEC #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
These are personal trading-system notes and observations of market data, not investment advice.
