A Saturday morning recap of the week—there was a lot to take in.
The biggest thing to mull over isn’t how much the market fell—the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly drop since April 2025, and the Nasdaq fell for four straight sessions—but the news that just broke: Microsoft has backed out of its AI computing lease with Oracle.
Think about how things looked before: Oracle was making grand promises about FY30, GPUs were impossible to get worldwide, and big tech companies were lining up to become landlords for computing power. Now the tide has turned: some are starting to give up their AI computing leases, and the fallout from post-election data centers is spreading layer by layer. The private markets are repricing at the same time: Anthropic is holding its IPO roadshow next week, with its valuation shrinking from $1.5 trillion toward $1 trillion as it races to go public before Thanksgiving; that same night, OpenAI had just raised $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, while SoftBank was still debating whether to join in.
The macro picture is even less encouraging. Daly of the San Francisco Fed said outright that inflation is persistent and policy needs to keep tightening. The odds of a rate hike in December have already surged to 78%.
My take: the AI narrative is shifting from “scramble for computing power” to “check the books.” Giving up leases hurts the narrative more than price cuts do. Over the weekend, seven attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in November have already been confirmed, and Trump still has a “narrow window” for military action. Don’t go into the weekend heavily positioned.
NFA DYOR
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #AI #美联储 #美股 #Cryptocurrency
The biggest thing to mull over isn’t how much the market fell—the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly drop since April 2025, and the Nasdaq fell for four straight sessions—but the news that just broke: Microsoft has backed out of its AI computing lease with Oracle.
Think about how things looked before: Oracle was making grand promises about FY30, GPUs were impossible to get worldwide, and big tech companies were lining up to become landlords for computing power. Now the tide has turned: some are starting to give up their AI computing leases, and the fallout from post-election data centers is spreading layer by layer. The private markets are repricing at the same time: Anthropic is holding its IPO roadshow next week, with its valuation shrinking from $1.5 trillion toward $1 trillion as it races to go public before Thanksgiving; that same night, OpenAI had just raised $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, while SoftBank was still debating whether to join in.
The macro picture is even less encouraging. Daly of the San Francisco Fed said outright that inflation is persistent and policy needs to keep tightening. The odds of a rate hike in December have already surged to 78%.
My take: the AI narrative is shifting from “scramble for computing power” to “check the books.” Giving up leases hurts the narrative more than price cuts do. Over the weekend, seven attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in November have already been confirmed, and Trump still has a “narrow window” for military action. Don’t go into the weekend heavily positioned.
NFA DYOR
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #AI #美联储 #美股 #Cryptocurrency