After the nonfarm report sent everything tumbling overnight, what bothered me most wasn't how much more it had fallen, but that $BTC barely budged when U.S. stocks rebounded.
Last night's nonfarm payrolls report: 165,000 jobs were added in October, about 65,000 more than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. As soon as the numbers came out, the market raised the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December to around 80%. This should have been bad news for risk assets, but U.S. stocks—especially Nasdaq futures—moved higher on Friday. In crypto, Bitcoin is trading around 75,900, $ETH around 2,240. Both have been nearly flat over the past 24 hours, grinding near their monthly lows.
For a seasoned crypto investor like me, this kind of divergence is more unsettling than a straightforward drop. Some people are willing to buy the dip in stocks, while liquidity is thin in crypto over the weekend and money hasn't rushed back in. My usual rule of thumb is that after macro data comes out, it's often not the same night but the next major data release that really changes the trend. Next week's CPI is more likely to determine whether a December rate hike is a sure thing or whether the Fed hesitates again.
Don’t expect altcoins to suddenly strengthen over the weekend. When the broader market lacks direction, following the trend is the easiest way to get burned. These past few days, I’d rather stick to my position-management discipline and wait until around the CPI release to see whether any coins have a story of their own.
Do you think Bitcoin will drift back to $77,000 before next week’s CPI report, or take another shot at the area around $75,000?
This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk.