U.S. stocks bounced back last night, with the Nasdaq up 2% and the chip ETF surging 6.5%. So what about BTC? It first fell below $75,000 yesterday, then bounced back to just $75,900—basically going nowhere. Everyone else is feasting while it hasn’t even gotten the leftovers. Pretty awkward.
Values shown on the page: BTC is hovering around $75,900, basically unchanged over the past 24 hours (-0.09%), with $28.3 billion in trading volume and a market cap of $1.52 trillion. ETH is at $2,243, up 0.48%; SOL is at $90.34, up 0.63%. The Fear and Greed Index on the plaza is at 31—still in fear territory.
The jobs report was genuinely strong: 165,000 jobs were added in October, versus expectations of just 65,000, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. The odds of a rate hike in December jumped straight to 77%. The better the data, the farther away rate cuts get, and the less oxygen the crypto market has. I laid out this logic in my post last night, and today’s data confirmed it firsthand.
On one side are the dip buyers: BTC has held $75,000 twice, and U.S. stocks are starting to bounce back too. If not now, when? On the other side are the bears: BTC isn’t following the U.S. stock rebound—that’s weakness. If $75,000 breaks, it’s on to $74,000, and rushing to buy the dip is just handing money to the shorts.
My take: short-term, the market is still range-bound with a bearish bias. If BTC can’t rise when U.S. stocks do, then when U.S. stocks catch a cold, it’ll sneeze too. $75,000 is the first hurdle; if it can’t hold, I’d look toward $74,000.
What would make me admit I’m wrong? If next week’s CPI and PPI come in soft, rate-hike expectations cool, and BTC climbs back above $80,000 on strong volume, then my bearish view is invalidated. I’ll own it.
What do you think? With U.S. stocks bouncing back while BTC goes nowhere, is it building up strength—or has it simply run out of steam?
Values shown on the page: BTC is hovering around $75,900, basically unchanged over the past 24 hours (-0.09%), with $28.3 billion in trading volume and a market cap of $1.52 trillion. ETH is at $2,243, up 0.48%; SOL is at $90.34, up 0.63%. The Fear and Greed Index on the plaza is at 31—still in fear territory.
The jobs report was genuinely strong: 165,000 jobs were added in October, versus expectations of just 65,000, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. The odds of a rate hike in December jumped straight to 77%. The better the data, the farther away rate cuts get, and the less oxygen the crypto market has. I laid out this logic in my post last night, and today’s data confirmed it firsthand.
On one side are the dip buyers: BTC has held $75,000 twice, and U.S. stocks are starting to bounce back too. If not now, when? On the other side are the bears: BTC isn’t following the U.S. stock rebound—that’s weakness. If $75,000 breaks, it’s on to $74,000, and rushing to buy the dip is just handing money to the shorts.
My take: short-term, the market is still range-bound with a bearish bias. If BTC can’t rise when U.S. stocks do, then when U.S. stocks catch a cold, it’ll sneeze too. $75,000 is the first hurdle; if it can’t hold, I’d look toward $74,000.
What would make me admit I’m wrong? If next week’s CPI and PPI come in soft, rate-hike expectations cool, and BTC climbs back above $80,000 on strong volume, then my bearish view is invalidated. I’ll own it.
What do you think? With U.S. stocks bouncing back while BTC goes nowhere, is it building up strength—or has it simply run out of steam?