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🔁 Yesterday’s Review
The SOL short was triggered and is still open, with a maximum unrealized profit of 1.02%; it’s now showing an unrealized loss of about 0.33%. The BIRB long never reached its entry zone. It’s now 10.37% higher than when selected, after rising as much as 37.38% intraday. I missed this trade.
ARIA, which I only watched and didn’t trade, is now 6.56% lower than when it was selected, with an intraday drop of up to 29.76%. Over the past 30 days, 31 trades have closed: 13 hit Target 1 and 15 were stopped out, for a Target 1 hit rate of 46%.
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📊 Market Overview Today
Today I’m mainly looking to go long on altcoins pulling back. I placed conditional orders for two trades, both with small positions. BTC is down 0.33% from the previous period, falling from 76,069 to 75,818, and is around the 16% level of its 7-day range. Over the past 24 hours, it’s down 0.3%, fluctuating between 74,811 and 76,365.
The nearest resistance above is 76,126; if it breaks above that, watch 76,533. If it falls below 75,690, watch 75,260, then 74,811.
The percentage of long-position traders rose from 74.5% a day ago to 75.8%; top traders’ long positions are at 67.5%, the funding rate is 0.01%, and the 1-hour taker buy/sell ratio is 1.48, favoring buyers. Retail traders remain heavily long while the price moves sideways, making long positions more crowded.
ETH is currently at 2,238, nearly unchanged over 24 hours. The percentage of long-position traders is 79.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from a day ago. Above 2,249, watch 2,269; below 2,236, watch 2,225.
78% of 51 altcoins are up, compared with just 16% in the previous period; the median gain is 1.96%. With BTC moving sideways and most altcoins in the green, prioritize a pullback order for ARB, with PEPE as the second choice. Wait for a pullback before entering either.
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🟢 Long ARB
Up 5.4% in 24 hours, with open interest up 25.7% over the same period, growing faster than the price; open interest fell 1.5% in the past hour. Trading volume is about $84 million. The current price is 0.16496, down 4.2% from the 24-hour high of 0.17211. Volume in the past 3 hours is only half of normal.
On November 5, Lido launched native swap functionality on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base (source: Phemex news feed). The previous pullback found support around 0.1623. Place an entry order in the 0.16161–0.16299 range.
The percentage of long-position traders rose from 53.5% to 59.4% in a day; top traders’ long positions are at 60.0%, and the taker buy/sell ratio is 1.39. The share of long-position traders has recovered, while the 0.01% funding rate is close to neutral.
▸ Entry: 0.16161 - 0.16299
▸ Stop-loss: 0.15932 (about -1.8%)
▸ Targets: 0.16677 / 0.17124
The stop-loss is just 1.8%, making this the top pullback order. If the price doesn’t return below 0.163 and instead surges straight back above 0.172, skip this trade.
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🟢 Long PEPE
Up 4.2% in 24 hours, with open interest up 13.2% over the same period, growing faster than the price; open interest fell 1.0% in the past hour. Trading volume is about $387 million. The current price is 0.0049936, down 4.3% from the 24-hour high of 0.0052186. It’s down 1.15% over 4 hours, and volume in the past 3 hours is a little over 70% of normal.
Coinpaper reported on November 6 that PEPE still posted a rebound of about 7% when BTC fell back to around 75,000, indicating relative strength. The previous pullback found support around 0.0049468. Place an entry order in the 0.0049175–0.0049761 range.
The percentage of long-position traders is 69.5%, top traders’ long positions are at 65.3%, and the taker buy/sell ratio is 0.97, indicating a roughly balanced market. The funding rate is 0.01%.
▸ Entry: 0.0049175 - 0.0049761
▸ Stop-loss: 0.0048198 (about -2.6%)
▸ Target: 0.0051373 / 0.0053279
Keep it as the second choice and wait for a pullback. If it breaks below 0.00486 on heavy volume or surges straight above 0.00522 without a pullback, skip this trade.
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👀 Watch only, no trade: AKE
Up 77% in 24 hours, with open interest up 52.7% over the same period. There’s no suitable entry point, so don’t chase the price.
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📌 Execution
After reaching Target 1, move the stop-loss to the entry price. Today, place conditional orders only for pullbacks in ARB and PEPE. For BTC, consider adding to the position only if it holds above 75,690.
⚠️ Perpetual contracts are highly volatile. The above are screening results and conditional-order ideas, not investment advice.