At 9:30 last night, the U.S. Department of Labor released the October nonfarm payrolls report: employment rose by 165,000, against expectations of just 65,000. September’s figure was also revised up from 29,000 to 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. The numbers were almost too good, and Bitcoin ($BTC) was the first to take a hit.

The logic is pretty straightforward. A strong jobs report tells the Fed there’s no need to rush into easing. The odds of a rate hike in December jumped from over 60% to nearly 77%, and the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.89%. As expectations of higher borrowing costs set in, risk assets took the first hit.

As soon as the data came out, Bitcoin fell 0.3% to around $75,500. After U.S. stocks opened, the Nasdaq rebounded 1.7%, but Bitcoin went the other way and slipped again, hitting a low of $74,762—its lowest level since August 21. That put it below MicroStrategy’s average cost of $75,451. The buffer of just over $300 we calculated yesterday vanished overnight, leaving it nearly $700 underwater.

But it didn’t break through either. After that, Bitcoin slowly climbed back, returning to around $76,000 this morning—more than $500 above the cost basis. At the same time, sentiment across the market also shifted. CoinPaprika data shows 401 coins were up and only 93 were down, with a median gain of 1.46%. That’s a completely different world from yesterday’s open, when 85 of the top 100 coins were down.

So last night’s script was simple: strong data pushed rate-hike expectations higher, Bitcoin got knocked down to test the cost basis, then bounced back when it held. The cost basis isn’t a hard floor; it’s a psychological level. Falling below it for a few hours and then recovering suggests there are still buyers waiting below.

The next test is the CPI report on November 18, followed by the Fed meeting on December 9. If rates really are raised in December, do you think Bitcoin will hit $70,000 first or return to $80,000 first?