$HYPE broke below 82.3—the rule set on November 2 has played out
Bottom line: 82.3 was the invalidation level I set at the time. It’s now at $78.6. I’m neither chasing shorts nor buying the dip—just waiting for it to choose a direction.
The November 2 post was clear: price was 88, up 12% for the week, with an all-time high of 98. The narrative around ICE signing with a U.S.-compliant perpetuals exchange, plus a Strong Buy signal on the weekly chart, looked great. But I had also set the rules: wait for a pullback to 82.62 to stabilize before reassessing; a daily close below 82.3 invalidates the thesis.
Five days later, $HYPE has fallen from 88 to 78.6, down 10.7%, and is about 20% below its all-time high of 98. The 75–80 range the bears had called for is now here.
What the bulls still have going for them: 24-hour trading volume is still $1 billion, market cap is $18.8 billion, and it barely closed in the green over 24 hours at +0.93%—so this isn’t a low-volume slide.
Why the bears have the upper hand: $BTC is still stuck at 76,000, and 79,400 hasn’t been reclaimed. The broader market isn’t backing the stronger assets; the narrative played out, but the price didn’t, and the ICE angle is unlikely to help in the short term.
My view:
- At 78.6, I’m not chasing shorts—the bears’ 75–80 target zone has already been reached, and chasing now means being the last one in
- I’m not buying the dip either—until it reclaims 82.3, talk of a recovery is just wishful thinking
- Only talk recovery if it reclaims 82.3 on rising volume; if it falls below 75, get out—don’t average down
When a strong asset breaks below its own invalidation level, you have to accept it. The narrative is still there, but the price has moved on. Maybe next time.
Bottom line: 82.3 was the invalidation level I set at the time. It’s now at $78.6. I’m neither chasing shorts nor buying the dip—just waiting for it to choose a direction.
The November 2 post was clear: price was 88, up 12% for the week, with an all-time high of 98. The narrative around ICE signing with a U.S.-compliant perpetuals exchange, plus a Strong Buy signal on the weekly chart, looked great. But I had also set the rules: wait for a pullback to 82.62 to stabilize before reassessing; a daily close below 82.3 invalidates the thesis.
Five days later, $HYPE has fallen from 88 to 78.6, down 10.7%, and is about 20% below its all-time high of 98. The 75–80 range the bears had called for is now here.
What the bulls still have going for them: 24-hour trading volume is still $1 billion, market cap is $18.8 billion, and it barely closed in the green over 24 hours at +0.93%—so this isn’t a low-volume slide.
Why the bears have the upper hand: $BTC is still stuck at 76,000, and 79,400 hasn’t been reclaimed. The broader market isn’t backing the stronger assets; the narrative played out, but the price didn’t, and the ICE angle is unlikely to help in the short term.
My view:
- At 78.6, I’m not chasing shorts—the bears’ 75–80 target zone has already been reached, and chasing now means being the last one in
- I’m not buying the dip either—until it reclaims 82.3, talk of a recovery is just wishful thinking
- Only talk recovery if it reclaims 82.3 on rising volume; if it falls below 75, get out—don’t average down
When a strong asset breaks below its own invalidation level, you have to accept it. The narrative is still there, but the price has moved on. Maybe next time.