$ARB: monthly unlock on November 16 — just ~1.3% of the circulating supply. Should we expect a drop?

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The next tranche is released on November 15–16: 92.65 million ARB (~$15.3 million at a price of ~$0.166). Recipients: the team and advisors (~56.1 million), and investors (~36.5 million). Around 6.89 billion ARB are in circulation, so the tranche represents roughly 1.3% (some sources put it at 1.3–2.0%). Market cap: ~$1.15 billion. These tranches are released monthly until February–March 2027, alongside a separate Arbitrum Foundation allocation of 750 million ARB through April 2027.

The hypothesis: selling pressure will be weak. The amount is small relative to the market cap, the schedule has been known for a long time, and the market is used to it. According to Tokenomist's research, the unlock effect for established tokens was statistically insignificant compared with similar assets.

If you're considering a short, the date itself is a weak catalyst: the scenario should be based on the overall market trend, not the unlock.

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