🚨 A 10% expected annualized return has been written into the decade-long forecast of an investment bank that loves to pour cold water on Bitcoin—and it ranks first.
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On November 6, JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA): an expected compound annual return of 10% over the next decade.
The other figures on the same table: 🔸 private equity 9.8%, U.S. large-cap stocks 7.5%, a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio 7%, and small-cap stocks 5.5%.
In other words, in the bank’s own model, Bitcoin’s expected return is higher than the figures it assigns to U.S. stocks and gold.
Even more thought-provoking is the breakdown of risk sources: JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. large-cap stocks at 33%. That’s lower than the correlation with international stocks, corporate bonds, and hedge funds—low correlation is what gives an asset diversification value. This is the language of portfolio allocation models, not faith.
There’s another detail that’s easy to overlook: after 21Shares published its research, JPMorgan also did its homework. Two different institutions, using two different methodologies, have placed Bitcoin in the same framework of “long-term expected returns.” Once the metrics are standardized, the debate quietly shifts.
A comment from Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, is also worth noting: Bitcoin is gaining acceptance in the institutional world, but that doesn’t mean its role in portfolios is set in stone.
What’s really worth paying attention to isn’t the 10% figure, but where it was written down—when Bitcoin’s expected return appears on the same table as private equity and 60/40 portfolios, the question of valuation shifts from “Do you believe in it?” to “How much should you allocate?” ⚖️
Allocation levels can be changed with a rebalancing order; faith cannot. That’s why a research report that doesn’t hype a trade carries more weight than ten long bullish essays.
⚠️ The other side needs to be clear too: 10% is a decade-long assumption, not a promise for the next twelve months. The model calculates the outcome ten years from now; investors have to weather everything in between. Those two things have never appeared on the same table.
If you were given an expected return of 10% over ten years, how much would you allocate? Let’s talk in the comments 👇
Tap my profile picture to watch the livestream + join my fan group for daily strategies 🚀
#比特币 #BTC #机构资金 #U.S.stocks
Group: 邀请您加入我的群组 悟空粉丝群
On November 6, JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA): an expected compound annual return of 10% over the next decade.
The other figures on the same table: 🔸 private equity 9.8%, U.S. large-cap stocks 7.5%, a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio 7%, and small-cap stocks 5.5%.
In other words, in the bank’s own model, Bitcoin’s expected return is higher than the figures it assigns to U.S. stocks and gold.
Even more thought-provoking is the breakdown of risk sources: JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. large-cap stocks at 33%. That’s lower than the correlation with international stocks, corporate bonds, and hedge funds—low correlation is what gives an asset diversification value. This is the language of portfolio allocation models, not faith.
There’s another detail that’s easy to overlook: after 21Shares published its research, JPMorgan also did its homework. Two different institutions, using two different methodologies, have placed Bitcoin in the same framework of “long-term expected returns.” Once the metrics are standardized, the debate quietly shifts.
A comment from Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, is also worth noting: Bitcoin is gaining acceptance in the institutional world, but that doesn’t mean its role in portfolios is set in stone.
What’s really worth paying attention to isn’t the 10% figure, but where it was written down—when Bitcoin’s expected return appears on the same table as private equity and 60/40 portfolios, the question of valuation shifts from “Do you believe in it?” to “How much should you allocate?” ⚖️
Allocation levels can be changed with a rebalancing order; faith cannot. That’s why a research report that doesn’t hype a trade carries more weight than ten long bullish essays.
⚠️ The other side needs to be clear too: 10% is a decade-long assumption, not a promise for the next twelve months. The model calculates the outcome ten years from now; investors have to weather everything in between. Those two things have never appeared on the same table.
If you were given an expected return of 10% over ten years, how much would you allocate? Let’s talk in the comments 👇
Tap my profile picture to watch the livestream + join my fan group for daily strategies 🚀
#比特币 #BTC #机构资金 #U.S.stocks
