The US economy added 165,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, more than double the 65,000 economists had expected, according to data released on November 6. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the 4.2% forecast and September’s 4.2% reading.

September Revised Up to 60,000

September’s gain was revised up to 60,000 from the 29,000 first reported. Together with the October beat, that points to a stronger labor market than earlier data suggested. October’s reading also came in well above Wednesday’s ADP figure of 86,000 private jobs.

Rate Hike Odds Already High

Before the report was released, CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 72.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and a 27.2% chance of no change.

By January, markets were pricing:

• A 63.4% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike

• A 15.1% chance of 50 basis points

• A 21.6% chance of no change

Traders Add to December Hike Bets

US short-term interest rate futures fell after the data, as traders increased their bets on a December rate hike, according to BlockBeats. Rate futures prices move in the opposite direction to expected interest rates, so a fall means traders are pricing in higher rates.

Markets Were Waiting on the Data

The report came after a volatile week for risk assets. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Thursday, and crypto markets saw more than $1 billion in liquidations over 24 hours. Before the release, bitcoin was trading around $76,150 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.47% on a rebound in AI-related stocks.