Tonight’s NFP: BTC’s real danger isn’t just bad news—watch out for a second round of liquidity hunting!
The U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is due tonight. The market expects 65,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month over month.
But this jobs report is different from a typical data-driven market event.
U.S. stocks took a severe hit yesterday: the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, and semiconductor stocks plunged. BTC also briefly fell to around $75,200, its lowest level in nearly seven weeks.
The main drivers of this downturn are cooling AI trading, shrinking risk appetite, and deleveraging. Tonight’s NFP report is merely a potential catalyst for further volatility.
The key tonight isn’t just the number of new jobs, but the combination of employment, wages, unemployment, and Treasury yields.
I’m watching three scenarios:
① Payrolls beat expectations and wages also come in hot
Expectations for Fed tightening could heat up again, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields and putting further pressure on BTC. If BTC breaks decisively below $75,100, watch the $75,000 and $74,500 areas.
② Payrolls come in significantly weaker and wages cool at the same time
If Treasury yields and the dollar also retreat, BTC could see a technical rebound. First watch $76,750, then $77,300–$77,600. But be careful: recession fears could outweigh rate-cut expectations.
③ The data is close to expectations
This is the scenario most likely to trigger whipsaws in both directions. Don’t chase the move on the first candle after the release. Wait 5–15 minutes and see whether the price can actually hold key levels.
My trading rules for tonight:
Don’t take a heavy directional position or blindly buy the dip before the release.
$75,100 is an important level to watch below. Only consider a trend-following short if the price breaks below it and fails to reclaim it on a rebound.
$76,750 is the level to watch for rebound confirmation. Consider a short-term long only after the price holds above it.
Watch for short covering and overhead liquidity around $77,300–$77,600.
If the price and Treasury market move in opposite directions after the data comes out, I’d rather stay flat.
I’m leaning toward sharp volatility first, followed by a directional move. The market’s core problem right now isn’t a lack of volatility—it’s that risk appetite hasn’t truly recovered.
Remember: the data shapes expectations, yields validate them, and price confirms the direction. Don’t guess the answer in advance—wait for the market to provide it.
Tonight, managing drawdowns matters far more than catching the first explosive candle in either direction.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股能否绝地反击？
The U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is due tonight. The market expects 65,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month over month.
But this jobs report is different from a typical data-driven market event.
U.S. stocks took a severe hit yesterday: the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, and semiconductor stocks plunged. BTC also briefly fell to around $75,200, its lowest level in nearly seven weeks.
The main drivers of this downturn are cooling AI trading, shrinking risk appetite, and deleveraging. Tonight’s NFP report is merely a potential catalyst for further volatility.
The key tonight isn’t just the number of new jobs, but the combination of employment, wages, unemployment, and Treasury yields.
I’m watching three scenarios:
① Payrolls beat expectations and wages also come in hot
Expectations for Fed tightening could heat up again, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields and putting further pressure on BTC. If BTC breaks decisively below $75,100, watch the $75,000 and $74,500 areas.
② Payrolls come in significantly weaker and wages cool at the same time
If Treasury yields and the dollar also retreat, BTC could see a technical rebound. First watch $76,750, then $77,300–$77,600. But be careful: recession fears could outweigh rate-cut expectations.
③ The data is close to expectations
This is the scenario most likely to trigger whipsaws in both directions. Don’t chase the move on the first candle after the release. Wait 5–15 minutes and see whether the price can actually hold key levels.
My trading rules for tonight:
Don’t take a heavy directional position or blindly buy the dip before the release.
$75,100 is an important level to watch below. Only consider a trend-following short if the price breaks below it and fails to reclaim it on a rebound.
$76,750 is the level to watch for rebound confirmation. Consider a short-term long only after the price holds above it.
Watch for short covering and overhead liquidity around $77,300–$77,600.
If the price and Treasury market move in opposite directions after the data comes out, I’d rather stay flat.
I’m leaning toward sharp volatility first, followed by a directional move. The market’s core problem right now isn’t a lack of volatility—it’s that risk appetite hasn’t truly recovered.
Remember: the data shapes expectations, yields validate them, and price confirms the direction. Don’t guess the answer in advance—wait for the market to provide it.
Tonight, managing drawdowns matters far more than catching the first explosive candle in either direction.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股能否绝地反击？
