This morning I wrote that BTC had touched its monthly low. After a full day, the price has barely moved.
The latest CoinGecko figures: $BTC is around 75,955, down about 4.6% over 24 hours—roughly where it was this morning at 76,100. It’s been hovering around the 30-day low near 76,000, neither breaking lower nor bouncing. $ETH is around 2,236, down 6.5%, notably weaker than BTC. It’s also been stuck near its monthly low of 2,240. This morning’s call was half right: the levels held, but I expected a decent afternoon rebound, and it never came.
The strong and weak performers were clearly split today. On the weak side were XRP, down about 9%; XPL, down about 10%; and $ENA , down about 7.5%—the kind of assets that get hit twice as hard whenever the broader market drops. ZEC held up relatively well, still slightly in the green over 24 hours, while BNB was down just over 2%. My experience over the past few years is that on big down days, the ones that don’t fall along with the market are often among the first to move when it rebounds. Worth keeping an eye on.
On sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index plunged from 50 to 28 in a day, entering fear territory. I already covered fund flows this afternoon: ETFs are still seeing outflows, so I won't repeat myself here.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due tonight at 21:30, followed by CPI and PPI next week. These are the key events to watch this week. I see two possible scenarios:
Break higher: If the data comes in soft and rate-cut expectations recover, BTC needs to reclaim the 7-day moving average around $77,500, and ETH needs to get back above $2,300, for this round of selling to be considered over.
Break lower: If the data comes in strong and the dollar and U.S. stocks weaken again, a high-volume break below this month's low of $76,000 would leave little meaningful support below. If ETH also loses $2,240, altcoins will probably see another round of catch-up declines.
My own approach is simple: I won't add to or sell my spot holdings before the data comes out. I'll reduce my futures positions to a level I can sleep with, then wait for the closing direction to become clear before taking action.
Let's talk: For tonight's nonfarm payrolls, are you staying up to watch, or shutting down your computer and going to bed?
The above is my personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk.