On-chain I Ching | Today’s hexagram: Mountain over Wind — Decay: change is overdue. The old bill is dead; the new bill is still on paper.
Yesterday I was still asking whether CLARITY could get back on the schedule. Today, we got our answer: a Paradigm adviser came right out and said the bill is dead.
Sources: Unchained, CoinDesk, Punchbowl News, TD Cowen, DLA Piper, and the Associated Press. Snapshot taken the morning of 11-06. Figures are given as ranges; I’m not forcing them into a single number.
Prices and flows: BTC around $76,100–$76,300, down about 5.2% to 5.6% over 24 hours, as news of the bill collided with a sell-off in U.S. stocks; ETH around $2,240, down about 7.8% over 24 hours.
On-chain figures such as holder counts and the share held by the top 10 have nothing to do with a bill. They’re not included here, and I won’t make them up.
Timeline: 2025-07-17, CLARITY passed the House 294-134; 2026-05-14, passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9; 2026-09-15, a procedural Senate vote failed 49-50, falling short of the 60 votes needed, and the bill stalled; 11-01, a Punchbowl survey found only 27% of K Street insiders thought it could pass before 2028, while 48% thought it unlikely; 11-03, Democrats won both chambers in the midterm elections; 11-04, TD Cowen said a deal was unlikely in the next two years, CoinDesk called it the “final blow” to the bill, Warren was set to take the helm of the Senate Banking Committee, and Brown returned to the Senate; 11-05, Paradigm adviser Slaughter said on an Unchained livestream, “The bill looks dead. It won’t pass during the lame-duck session,” while House Democratic staffers were drafting their own version.
The bill used to be about how the two parties would divide regulatory authority. Now it’s about Democrats rewriting it and shifting authority toward the SEC. Before, we were waiting for 60 Senate votes; now we’re waiting for the 120th Congress to start from scratch in January 2027.
Bottom line: the situation is “the old bill is dead, the new bill hasn’t been born, and the regulatory vacuum remains.” But the bill’s death doesn’t mean the industry is dead. The GENIUS stablecoin law is already in place, and the OCC’s detailed rules were finalized on 10-21 and take effect on 2027-01-18. If the rules don’t change for two years, that’s a window to operate under the framework we already have. Half the shoe has dropped; now we just have to see what the Democratic version looks like.
Once the Democrats’ version appears, I’ll break down the clauses and compare them with market action. Follow me—I’ll keep tracking the bill through January 2027.
The hexagram has been cast; set your own positions. —Shengshou
On-chain data is based on public snapshots. The metaphysical part is for entertainment and is not investment advice.
#玄学炒币 #CLARITY #BTC #The CLARITY Act may be shelved until 2028
Yesterday I was still asking whether CLARITY could get back on the schedule. Today, we got our answer: a Paradigm adviser came right out and said the bill is dead.
Sources: Unchained, CoinDesk, Punchbowl News, TD Cowen, DLA Piper, and the Associated Press. Snapshot taken the morning of 11-06. Figures are given as ranges; I’m not forcing them into a single number.
Prices and flows: BTC around $76,100–$76,300, down about 5.2% to 5.6% over 24 hours, as news of the bill collided with a sell-off in U.S. stocks; ETH around $2,240, down about 7.8% over 24 hours.
On-chain figures such as holder counts and the share held by the top 10 have nothing to do with a bill. They’re not included here, and I won’t make them up.
Timeline: 2025-07-17, CLARITY passed the House 294-134; 2026-05-14, passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9; 2026-09-15, a procedural Senate vote failed 49-50, falling short of the 60 votes needed, and the bill stalled; 11-01, a Punchbowl survey found only 27% of K Street insiders thought it could pass before 2028, while 48% thought it unlikely; 11-03, Democrats won both chambers in the midterm elections; 11-04, TD Cowen said a deal was unlikely in the next two years, CoinDesk called it the “final blow” to the bill, Warren was set to take the helm of the Senate Banking Committee, and Brown returned to the Senate; 11-05, Paradigm adviser Slaughter said on an Unchained livestream, “The bill looks dead. It won’t pass during the lame-duck session,” while House Democratic staffers were drafting their own version.
The bill used to be about how the two parties would divide regulatory authority. Now it’s about Democrats rewriting it and shifting authority toward the SEC. Before, we were waiting for 60 Senate votes; now we’re waiting for the 120th Congress to start from scratch in January 2027.
Bottom line: the situation is “the old bill is dead, the new bill hasn’t been born, and the regulatory vacuum remains.” But the bill’s death doesn’t mean the industry is dead. The GENIUS stablecoin law is already in place, and the OCC’s detailed rules were finalized on 10-21 and take effect on 2027-01-18. If the rules don’t change for two years, that’s a window to operate under the framework we already have. Half the shoe has dropped; now we just have to see what the Democratic version looks like.
Once the Democrats’ version appears, I’ll break down the clauses and compare them with market action. Follow me—I’ll keep tracking the bill through January 2027.
The hexagram has been cast; set your own positions. —Shengshou
On-chain data is based on public snapshots. The metaphysical part is for entertainment and is not investment advice.
#玄学炒币 #CLARITY #BTC #The CLARITY Act may be shelved until 2028