BTC plunged straight from 81,188 to 75,158 today—a full $6,000 drop—in one massive 4H candle, with volume 10 times the usual level.
This isn’t a normal pullback. Someone is actively dumping and closing out positions, while also hunting the stop-losses of all the retail traders below.
BTC is now at 76,087. It looks like it’s bounced a little, but don’t be fooled by that number. The high of that sharp-drop candle was 80,390, and its low was 75,525. Price is currently just drifting around the middle of that huge candle; structurally, nothing has been repaired.
ETH is in even worse shape. Its daily RSI has fallen to 28, entering oversold territory. It’s down 7.3%, with a low of 2,205. After such a big one-day drop, the odds of a short-term bounce have increased, but that doesn’t mean you should blindly buy the dip—oversold can get even more oversold. Have you ever seen RSI fall to 18?
The regime signal is CHOP_MID: weak, choppy price action. In plain English: the direction is unclear. Don’t force a prediction; wait for the market to provide evidence.
BTC funding is 0.516% and ETH funding is 0.485%. They lean bullish, but aren’t extreme, which suggests the market hasn’t reached a one-sided consensus. Everyone is watching and waiting; nobody dares to make a heavy bet on a direction.
What’s my take?
75,880 above is the first 4H closing price after that sharp-drop candle, and it’s also local resistance in the current range. If BTC tests this level repeatedly but can’t close above it, that suggests the bears are still in control of the structure. Wait for a retest of the 76,300–76,400 FVG midpoint area, then look for a short opportunity. Place the SL above 76,850, with the 75,000 liquidity pool as the target.
75,158 below is today’s low. Beneath it is a vacuum left by previous liquidations, so real support may not appear until the 73,000–73,500 range. If price can reclaim 76,400 by today’s close, a short-term long may make sense. Place the SL at 75,500, with a target of 78,000–78,500.
Regardless of direction, keep your position size small after today’s sharp volatility. Wait for the structure to be confirmed again before entering.
Chasing pumps and dumps is the most expensive lesson you can learn.
Follow me for a livestream and SMC lesson every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao | No advice
This isn’t a normal pullback. Someone is actively dumping and closing out positions, while also hunting the stop-losses of all the retail traders below.
BTC is now at 76,087. It looks like it’s bounced a little, but don’t be fooled by that number. The high of that sharp-drop candle was 80,390, and its low was 75,525. Price is currently just drifting around the middle of that huge candle; structurally, nothing has been repaired.
ETH is in even worse shape. Its daily RSI has fallen to 28, entering oversold territory. It’s down 7.3%, with a low of 2,205. After such a big one-day drop, the odds of a short-term bounce have increased, but that doesn’t mean you should blindly buy the dip—oversold can get even more oversold. Have you ever seen RSI fall to 18?
The regime signal is CHOP_MID: weak, choppy price action. In plain English: the direction is unclear. Don’t force a prediction; wait for the market to provide evidence.
BTC funding is 0.516% and ETH funding is 0.485%. They lean bullish, but aren’t extreme, which suggests the market hasn’t reached a one-sided consensus. Everyone is watching and waiting; nobody dares to make a heavy bet on a direction.
What’s my take?
75,880 above is the first 4H closing price after that sharp-drop candle, and it’s also local resistance in the current range. If BTC tests this level repeatedly but can’t close above it, that suggests the bears are still in control of the structure. Wait for a retest of the 76,300–76,400 FVG midpoint area, then look for a short opportunity. Place the SL above 76,850, with the 75,000 liquidity pool as the target.
75,158 below is today’s low. Beneath it is a vacuum left by previous liquidations, so real support may not appear until the 73,000–73,500 range. If price can reclaim 76,400 by today’s close, a short-term long may make sense. Place the SL at 75,500, with a target of 78,000–78,500.
Regardless of direction, keep your position size small after today’s sharp volatility. Wait for the structure to be confirmed again before entering.
Chasing pumps and dumps is the most expensive lesson you can learn.
Follow me for a livestream and SMC lesson every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao | No advice