The US October nonfarm payrolls report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 6. The consensus is just 65,000, with the Bloomberg survey ranging from 35,000 to 131,000. The day before, the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%—its worst day since March 2020.
With the data landing on the second day of the AI-trade collapse, the way to read it flips. Before the selloff, markets priced in 21 basis points of rate hikes in December, with odds of about 83%. After Thursday, that fell to 17.25 basis points, or about 70%, and the 2-year Treasury yield dropped 12 basis points. The selloff itself is doing the Fed’s tightening for it.
So tonight, the headline nonfarm payrolls figure isn’t the main event. September’s unrounded unemployment rate was 4.18%; a small shift could put it at 4.1% or 4.3%. A strong report would put a December rate hike back on the table.
#非农数据 #美联储 #USStocks
With the data landing on the second day of the AI-trade collapse, the way to read it flips. Before the selloff, markets priced in 21 basis points of rate hikes in December, with odds of about 83%. After Thursday, that fell to 17.25 basis points, or about 70%, and the 2-year Treasury yield dropped 12 basis points. The selloff itself is doing the Fed’s tightening for it.
So tonight, the headline nonfarm payrolls figure isn’t the main event. September’s unrounded unemployment rate was 4.18%; a small shift could put it at 4.1% or 4.3%. A strong report would put a December rate hike back on the table.
#非农数据 #美联储 #USStocks