BTC drops 5.32% in a day as positions change hands; I expect a recovery in the overnight session
That red candle during the day was genuinely scary. BTC plunged from 80398 to 75158, closing around 76102, down 5.32% for the day. ETH was worse at -7.35%. XRP plunged -9.21%, becoming almost unrecognizable. Surprisingly, the steadiest of the lot was BNB, down just 2.85%; at 696, it was still hugging the daily midpoint of 698. Tough.
But fear is one thing; the data doesn’t lie.
First, volume. BTC traded 21.95 billion USDT over the day. That’s real money changing hands, not a slow bleed. ETH also put up 14.43 billion. Heavy volume at a level like this means positions are moving from weak hands to strong hands, which is good for what comes next.
Second, funding rates. BTC’s rate is down to just 0.0058%, and ETH’s is 0.0046%—almost flat. The highly leveraged speculative positions from earlier in the day have been thoroughly flushed out. The futures market is as calm as a food market in the middle of the night. The more thoroughly leverage is cleared out, the cleaner the next move will be.
Third, price levels. BTC hit an intraday low of 75158 and closed at 76102, with 73842 still providing support below. There’s buying support at the lower end of the daily range—it’s not in free fall.
So my view is clear: this sell-off looks more like a final shakeout than a trend breakdown. Bias: bullish.
Overnight scenario: as long as 75158 holds, look for a recovery. The first target is 77365; only a move above that would show a real recovery. The next target is 79572 if momentum strengthens. On the other hand, if 75158 gives way overnight, look down to 73842. Wait for signs of stability there—don’t rush in.
ETH levels to watch: 2205 is the lifeline; a break points to 2149. A rebound needs to clear 2292 before we talk about a turnaround, with 2380 as the next ceiling.
If you handed over your positions at the lows during the day, don’t regret it when the rebound comes tonight. This market always punishes two things: greed at the highs and shaky hands at the lows. Which one are you guilty of?
$BTC Daily sell level: $79573 Daily buy level: $73843
$ETH Daily sell level: $2380.76 Daily buy level: $2149.37
$BNB Daily sell level: $713.68 Daily buy level: $675.25
$BTC #BTC $ETH #ETH
That red candle during the day was genuinely scary. BTC plunged from 80398 to 75158, closing around 76102, down 5.32% for the day. ETH was worse at -7.35%. XRP plunged -9.21%, becoming almost unrecognizable. Surprisingly, the steadiest of the lot was BNB, down just 2.85%; at 696, it was still hugging the daily midpoint of 698. Tough.
But fear is one thing; the data doesn’t lie.
First, volume. BTC traded 21.95 billion USDT over the day. That’s real money changing hands, not a slow bleed. ETH also put up 14.43 billion. Heavy volume at a level like this means positions are moving from weak hands to strong hands, which is good for what comes next.
Second, funding rates. BTC’s rate is down to just 0.0058%, and ETH’s is 0.0046%—almost flat. The highly leveraged speculative positions from earlier in the day have been thoroughly flushed out. The futures market is as calm as a food market in the middle of the night. The more thoroughly leverage is cleared out, the cleaner the next move will be.
Third, price levels. BTC hit an intraday low of 75158 and closed at 76102, with 73842 still providing support below. There’s buying support at the lower end of the daily range—it’s not in free fall.
So my view is clear: this sell-off looks more like a final shakeout than a trend breakdown. Bias: bullish.
Overnight scenario: as long as 75158 holds, look for a recovery. The first target is 77365; only a move above that would show a real recovery. The next target is 79572 if momentum strengthens. On the other hand, if 75158 gives way overnight, look down to 73842. Wait for signs of stability there—don’t rush in.
ETH levels to watch: 2205 is the lifeline; a break points to 2149. A rebound needs to clear 2292 before we talk about a turnaround, with 2380 as the next ceiling.
If you handed over your positions at the lows during the day, don’t regret it when the rebound comes tonight. This market always punishes two things: greed at the highs and shaky hands at the lows. Which one are you guilty of?
$BTC Daily sell level: $79573 Daily buy level: $73843
$ETH Daily sell level: $2380.76 Daily buy level: $2149.37
$BNB Daily sell level: $713.68 Daily buy level: $675.25
$BTC #BTC $ETH #ETH