Nonfarm payrolls come out tonight at 21:30. Should I keep holding this core position, $ETH ? Let’s talk about what to do before and after the data drops.
1. Bottom line first: elections are a slow-moving variable; these data are a fast-moving one. Changing money matters more than changing people. Whether there’s a rate cut in December depends on tonight.
2. The three blue labels on the chart: the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, unchanged from the previous reading; nonfarm payrolls were 29,000 last time and are expected at 65,000—the market has already priced in a rebound. The biggest standout is average hourly earnings month over month, jumping straight from 0.1% to 0.3%. Wages are still rising, so inflation hasn’t come down.
3. Two possible scenarios. If payrolls come in at 30,000–50,000 and hourly earnings are held to 0.2%, rate-cut expectations will pick up and risk assets can catch their breath. If payrolls top 80,000 and hourly earnings hit 0.4%, rate cuts will be pushed back, and the market could take another sharp dip to shake out traders.
4. I have just two reasons for keeping my core ETH position: I think the downside is limited, and if it really plunges, that’s where I’ll buy in batches. But I won’t go all-in before the data comes out. Being all-in overnight means giving up control.
The plan is simple: hold the core position and wait. If there’s a sharp wick down, don’t chase the first 15-minute candle. If price gets above a key level and holds, then add with a second entry. The twenty minutes after the data comes out are the most deceptive—even if you get the direction right, you can still get shaken out.
How are you planning to handle things tonight? When will you enter, and when will you make your move? Come hang out in the chat and wait for Fish!
#欧洲央行目标2029年发行数字欧元 #币安将恢复更多资产提现
1. Bottom line first: elections are a slow-moving variable; these data are a fast-moving one. Changing money matters more than changing people. Whether there’s a rate cut in December depends on tonight.
2. The three blue labels on the chart: the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, unchanged from the previous reading; nonfarm payrolls were 29,000 last time and are expected at 65,000—the market has already priced in a rebound. The biggest standout is average hourly earnings month over month, jumping straight from 0.1% to 0.3%. Wages are still rising, so inflation hasn’t come down.
3. Two possible scenarios. If payrolls come in at 30,000–50,000 and hourly earnings are held to 0.2%, rate-cut expectations will pick up and risk assets can catch their breath. If payrolls top 80,000 and hourly earnings hit 0.4%, rate cuts will be pushed back, and the market could take another sharp dip to shake out traders.
4. I have just two reasons for keeping my core ETH position: I think the downside is limited, and if it really plunges, that’s where I’ll buy in batches. But I won’t go all-in before the data comes out. Being all-in overnight means giving up control.
The plan is simple: hold the core position and wait. If there’s a sharp wick down, don’t chase the first 15-minute candle. If price gets above a key level and holds, then add with a second entry. The twenty minutes after the data comes out are the most deceptive—even if you get the direction right, you can still get shaken out.
How are you planning to handle things tonight? When will you enter, and when will you make your move? Come hang out in the chat and wait for Fish!
#欧洲央行目标2029年发行数字欧元 #币安将恢复更多资产提现
