Yesterday I said, "Don’t chase the rally or short today. Wait for the nonfarm payrolls report before deciding on a direction." That call has been validated today — people who chased the rally are now getting burned.

The current technical levels:

· Current price: 76,202; 24-hour range: 75,200–80,900

· First support: 76,217 — the current price is sitting right on this level, where bulls and bears are battling it out

· Second support: 73,647 — if it breaks, watch this level

· All moving average indicators are weakening; overall technical rating: Strong Sell

There’s an even more concerning data point in the options market:

Today at 16:00 Beijing time, $2.64 billion worth of BTC options expire on Deribit. The max pain price is 79,000, the put/call ratio is just 0.38, and call positions are concentrated at 82,000 and 85,000.

A lot of leveraged longs entered at 82,000 and 85,000. The price is now at 76,000, so they’re all sitting on unrealized losses. Around options expiry, market makers’ hedging activity can amplify volatility.

Tonight at 21:30: October nonfarm payrolls. Here are three possible scenarios in advance:

① Data comes in above expectations (over 100,000) + monthly wage growth > 0.3%

→ Rate-hike expectations for December strengthen → Treasury yields rise → tech stocks take another hit → BTC is likely to break below 76,217, with 73,647 in sight.

In this scenario, don’t try to catch the falling knife. Wait until the second wave of selling is over.

② Data comes in in line with expectations (59,000–65,000) + wage growth at 0.3%

→ The most comfortable scenario. The market will interpret it as “moderate employment growth, inflation under control,” giving BTC a chance to recover to 78,000–79,000 (near the maximum pain point for options).

③ Data comes in well below expectations (under 40,000)

→ Bearish in the short term (recession fears), bullish in the medium term (cooler rate-hike expectations). In this scenario, prices usually fall first and rise later. It’s the easiest scenario to get caught out on both sides, so don’t trade the first move.

Key context: The probability of a December rate hike has already fallen from 80% a week ago to 68.7%.

That number is interesting—the stock market sell-off is changing how the market prices in policy. If tonight’s data is a little weaker, it could open the door to the possibility of “no rate hike in December.”

What I’ll do:

At these levels, neither bulls nor bears are comfortable. I’ll wait for the data at 21:30, see how the first five-minute move plays out, then check 30 minutes later for a retest and confirmation. The first 15 minutes after the data release are the most expensive 15 minutes of the session—don’t open new positions during that window.

How are you planning to handle tonight? Sitting on the sidelines with no position, or keeping a position open to bet on the data? Let me know in the comments.

Follow me—I’ll break down the numbers and update key levels as soon as the data comes out.

$BTC #NonfarmPayrolls #Bitcoin

For informational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.