Last night’s U.S. stocks selloff was brutal, and the hardest hit weren’t retail investors but hedge funds: tech funds saw all their 2026 profits wiped out overnight, the Nasdaq fell 5.56%—its biggest single-day drop since the pandemic—$2.5 trillion in market value evaporated, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%. A round trip, and a whole year of work down the drain.
But AAOI’s earnings call in the early hours of the morning was a completely different world. The management team’s exact words: demand is “exceptional, unprecedented—I don’t even know what words to use to describe it.” Capacity can meet only 80% of demand. The second LTA contract ($5–7.5 billion) is in its final stages of negotiation; once signed, total contracted business will be close to $10 billion. The stock is getting slashed, while orders are lining up.
On one side, funds are dumping their holdings and taking losses; on the other, cloud providers are locking in capacity. Both sides are telling the truth—they’re just looking at different time horizons. My take: this selloff is hitting valuations and crowded positions, not demand itself. The backlog at companies like $AAOI , which make the picks and shovels and still can’t keep up, is the proof.
The macro risks aren’t all off the table either. Brent crude has already broken above $100. Trump’s exact words: “Maybe I’ll have to take action—you’ll find out soon.” Tonight, both the U.S. jobs report and U.S.-Iran talks will land. $BTC is sitting at 75,810, down 5.4%, and it gets no exemption. Let’s make it through Friday before talking about anything else.
NFA DYOR
#美股 #AI #光模块 #比特币 #CrudeOil
But AAOI’s earnings call in the early hours of the morning was a completely different world. The management team’s exact words: demand is “exceptional, unprecedented—I don’t even know what words to use to describe it.” Capacity can meet only 80% of demand. The second LTA contract ($5–7.5 billion) is in its final stages of negotiation; once signed, total contracted business will be close to $10 billion. The stock is getting slashed, while orders are lining up.
On one side, funds are dumping their holdings and taking losses; on the other, cloud providers are locking in capacity. Both sides are telling the truth—they’re just looking at different time horizons. My take: this selloff is hitting valuations and crowded positions, not demand itself. The backlog at companies like $AAOI , which make the picks and shovels and still can’t keep up, is the proof.
The macro risks aren’t all off the table either. Brent crude has already broken above $100. Trump’s exact words: “Maybe I’ll have to take action—you’ll find out soon.” Tonight, both the U.S. jobs report and U.S.-Iran talks will land. $BTC is sitting at 75,810, down 5.4%, and it gets no exemption. Let’s make it through Friday before talking about anything else.
NFA DYOR
#美股 #AI #光模块 #比特币 #CrudeOil