Just a couple of days ago, people were saying Anthropic would go public at a $1.5 trillion valuation—the biggest IPO in history—and raise $100 billion. Today, The Wall Street Journal poured cold water on that: major institutions considering investing say the price is too high and needs to come down, or they won’t buy.
On one side is Anthropic: Claude is flying off the shelves, and its annualized revenue run rate is already over $80 billion. What’s wrong with $1.5 trillion? People were even talking about $2 trillion before. On the other side are the people putting up the money: your October revenue figure is still blank in the prospectus, Nasdaq just lost $2.5 trillion in market value in a single day, and you expect me to buy in at 19 times revenue right now? Reuters also says it’s uncertain whether next week’s roadshow will start on schedule, and even a November listing is now in doubt.
Here’s where I stand: this isn’t just an Anthropic problem. It’s the first time the AI bubble has been publicly put on the negotiating table. The days when private markets could name any price and get it are over. When it’s time to go public and face real money, buyers finally dare to say, “That’s too expensive.” Whether the price is cut or the IPO is delayed, getting rid of the excess is good for everyone—except early shareholders hoping to get rich overnight when the company goes public.
Which side are you on? Is $1.5 trillion AI’s true worth, or has the bubble finally reached its limit?
On one side is Anthropic: Claude is flying off the shelves, and its annualized revenue run rate is already over $80 billion. What’s wrong with $1.5 trillion? People were even talking about $2 trillion before. On the other side are the people putting up the money: your October revenue figure is still blank in the prospectus, Nasdaq just lost $2.5 trillion in market value in a single day, and you expect me to buy in at 19 times revenue right now? Reuters also says it’s uncertain whether next week’s roadshow will start on schedule, and even a November listing is now in doubt.
Here’s where I stand: this isn’t just an Anthropic problem. It’s the first time the AI bubble has been publicly put on the negotiating table. The days when private markets could name any price and get it are over. When it’s time to go public and face real money, buyers finally dare to say, “That’s too expensive.” Whether the price is cut or the IPO is delayed, getting rid of the excess is good for everyone—except early shareholders hoping to get rich overnight when the company goes public.
Which side are you on? Is $1.5 trillion AI’s true worth, or has the bubble finally reached its limit?
