This sell-off tonight really isn’t just a crypto thing. I looked back over what happened:
The trigger was the U.S. stock market: on November 5, the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and the semiconductor index dropped 10%. Nvidia, AMD, and the rest were all down. It started after the midterm elections, when the Democrats won both chambers. The market fears that data-center construction will be tightened and AI investment will slow, so AI stocks crashed first and crypto got hit too. Bitfinex data shows a 30-day correlation of 0.68 between BTC and the Nasdaq, so this was a linked sell-off.
The numbers: At 16:55 (Beijing time), $BTC was around $75,635, down 6.0% over 24 hours. It gave back in a single day all the gains from Wednesday’s surge above $80,000, with an intraday low near $75,525; $ETH was at $2,225, down 8.0%; XRP was at $1.19, down 10.1%, a new 11-week low; SOL was at $89.60, down 7.2%. Total liquidations across the crypto market over 24 hours were around $1.05–1.17 billion, 92% of them from longs. The largest single ETH liquidation on Binance was $10.94 million—those who chased the highs with leveraged longs are paying the price.
My plan (note: it’s a plan, not a position I’ve already opened):
- BTC: I won’t chase shorts or try to catch the bottom. I’ll only consider testing a small long if it gets back above $78,000 and holds there. If it breaks below $75,500 and can’t reclaim it, I’ll stay out and watch. If it rebounds to $79,000–$80,000 but can’t break through, I’ll consider testing a small short, with a stop a little above $80,500.
- XRP: It’s at an 11-week low. Stay away for now; let it stabilize first.
- Even with 100x leverage, I put only a very small portion of my total capital up as margin for each trade. Stops have to be tight, and if I’m wrong, I’ll own it.
What do you think tonight? Waiting for things to stabilize, or have you already made a move?
The trigger was the U.S. stock market: on November 5, the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and the semiconductor index dropped 10%. Nvidia, AMD, and the rest were all down. It started after the midterm elections, when the Democrats won both chambers. The market fears that data-center construction will be tightened and AI investment will slow, so AI stocks crashed first and crypto got hit too. Bitfinex data shows a 30-day correlation of 0.68 between BTC and the Nasdaq, so this was a linked sell-off.
The numbers: At 16:55 (Beijing time), $BTC was around $75,635, down 6.0% over 24 hours. It gave back in a single day all the gains from Wednesday’s surge above $80,000, with an intraday low near $75,525; $ETH was at $2,225, down 8.0%; XRP was at $1.19, down 10.1%, a new 11-week low; SOL was at $89.60, down 7.2%. Total liquidations across the crypto market over 24 hours were around $1.05–1.17 billion, 92% of them from longs. The largest single ETH liquidation on Binance was $10.94 million—those who chased the highs with leveraged longs are paying the price.
My plan (note: it’s a plan, not a position I’ve already opened):
- BTC: I won’t chase shorts or try to catch the bottom. I’ll only consider testing a small long if it gets back above $78,000 and holds there. If it breaks below $75,500 and can’t reclaim it, I’ll stay out and watch. If it rebounds to $79,000–$80,000 but can’t break through, I’ll consider testing a small short, with a stop a little above $80,500.
- XRP: It’s at an 11-week low. Stay away for now; let it stabilize first.
- Even with 100x leverage, I put only a very small portion of my total capital up as margin for each trade. Stops have to be tight, and if I’m wrong, I’ll own it.
What do you think tonight? Waiting for things to stabilize, or have you already made a move?