Possible scenarios for tonight’s nonfarm payrolls:
Stronger-than-expected payrolls (both jobs and wages run hot): December rate-hike odds return to 80%+ → Treasury yields rebound and the dollar strengthens → BTC weakens.
A clear downside surprise in payrolls (jobs far below expectations / unemployment rises): Rate-hike expectations cool further → BTC could recover to 78,000–79,900, but only if U.S. tech stocks also find a floor.
In line with expectations: Pricing remains unchanged, and the market returns to being driven by technicals and intraday moves in U.S. stocks, with range-bound trading.
Place your bets, everyone. Big or small?
Stronger-than-expected payrolls (both jobs and wages run hot): December rate-hike odds return to 80%+ → Treasury yields rebound and the dollar strengthens → BTC weakens.
A clear downside surprise in payrolls (jobs far below expectations / unemployment rises): Rate-hike expectations cool further → BTC could recover to 78,000–79,900, but only if U.S. tech stocks also find a floor.
In line with expectations: Pricing remains unchanged, and the market returns to being driven by technicals and intraday moves in U.S. stocks, with range-bound trading.
Place your bets, everyone. Big or small?