The Nasdaq-100 plunged on Thursday, with the selloff sparked by signals from Washington. Markets speculated that congressional Democrats would tighten AI regulation, and the midterm election results became the trigger.

David Allen of Plato Investment Management put it bluntly: investors are conflating AI’s transformative potential with whether the investments can pay off. Vihari Ross of Antipodes was even more emphatic: enormous debts have to be repaid, and the whole thing cannot hold together if any one of these pieces is missing—cost of capital, interest rates, power supply, or demand.

The survival race among hyperscale cloud providers used to be all about who bought the most chips. Now the market is asking: Where will the power come from? How expensive will it be? Is demand still there?

The key thing to watch is simple: in upcoming earnings reports, which will change first—the capex guidance or the cost of debt financing?

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