I’ll make a bet: half the people doing regular investments who come across this post won’t stick with it for 10 years.
Let’s look at the numbers. Using Morningstar data, Baron calculated rolling monthly returns for the S&P 500 Total Return Index (January 1926 to September 2025):
· 1-year holding period: about a 76% chance of making money; worst period: -67.56%
· 10-year holding period: about 95%; worst annualized period: -4.95%
· 20-year holding period: 100%; even the worst annualized period returned 1.89%
· 30-year holding period: 100%; worst annualized period: 7.80%
People love arguing about when to buy, what to buy, and whether to wait for a pullback. The data gives a simpler answer: stretch the time horizon to 20 years, and historically there hasn’t been a single losing period.
What matters more to me is something else. The odds and the potential payoff are both on your side—but this table assumes you stay invested the whole time. In reality, regular investors have to weather drawdowns of 30% or more, like in 2008 and 2020. In 2022, the market also fell by more than 20%. Your account stays in the red for months, and everyone around you is urging you to cut your losses. Many people lose in the third year, on some night when they’re tempted to call it quits. That 100% in the table no longer has anything to do with them.
So my bet isn’t on the market—it’s on human nature. The market will probably deliver; people will probably get off the ride first.
Brother, are you betting you can stay invested for the full 20 years? Leave a year in the comments, and let’s compare notes in ten years.
(Personal observation, based on publicly available historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results and is not investment advice.)
#定投 #标普500 #LongTermism
Let’s look at the numbers. Using Morningstar data, Baron calculated rolling monthly returns for the S&P 500 Total Return Index (January 1926 to September 2025):
· 1-year holding period: about a 76% chance of making money; worst period: -67.56%
· 10-year holding period: about 95%; worst annualized period: -4.95%
· 20-year holding period: 100%; even the worst annualized period returned 1.89%
· 30-year holding period: 100%; worst annualized period: 7.80%
People love arguing about when to buy, what to buy, and whether to wait for a pullback. The data gives a simpler answer: stretch the time horizon to 20 years, and historically there hasn’t been a single losing period.
What matters more to me is something else. The odds and the potential payoff are both on your side—but this table assumes you stay invested the whole time. In reality, regular investors have to weather drawdowns of 30% or more, like in 2008 and 2020. In 2022, the market also fell by more than 20%. Your account stays in the red for months, and everyone around you is urging you to cut your losses. Many people lose in the third year, on some night when they’re tempted to call it quits. That 100% in the table no longer has anything to do with them.
So my bet isn’t on the market—it’s on human nature. The market will probably deliver; people will probably get off the ride first.
Brother, are you betting you can stay invested for the full 20 years? Leave a year in the comments, and let’s compare notes in ten years.
(Personal observation, based on publicly available historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results and is not investment advice.)
#定投 #标普500 #LongTermism