$BTC
$ETH
#非农就业数据 Tonight at 21:30, the vote on a December rate hike will also determine Bitcoin’s next move
Last night, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, its worst day since April 2025; BTC plunged to 75,200, its lowest level since mid-September; and $1.2 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, including $1.1 billion in long positions. It’s against this backdrop that October’s nonfarm payrolls report comes out tonight at 21:30.
This isn’t just an employment report—it’s a ballot on whether the Fed will hike rates again in December. CME currently puts the odds of a 25-basis-point December hike at 68.7%, down from 80% a week ago. That 11-percentage-point gap is what’s driving all the volatility tonight.
Three figures to watch, in this order
First, average hourly earnings month over month: expected at 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously. This is the most direct gauge of persistent inflation. A higher reading would immediately revive the rate-hike narrative.
Second, job gains: Dow Jones expects 59,000, while the consensus estimate is 65,000. Forecasts range from 50,000 to 100,000, compared with 29,000 previously. That wide range shows that even the institutions aren’t sure.
Third, the unemployment rate: expected at 4.2%. If employment is strong while unemployment also rises, that points to strength driven by shrinking labor supply, not demand.
One more bit of context: ADP came in at 86,000 (vs. 69,000 expected), initial jobless claims were 189,000 (near a 57-year low), and JOLTS showed 7.52 million openings. Leading indicators are broadly strong. So while the market is talking about 65,000, it’s bracing for a number above 100,000.
$ETH
#非农就业数据 Tonight at 21:30, the vote on a December rate hike will also determine Bitcoin’s next move
Last night, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, its worst day since April 2025; BTC plunged to 75,200, its lowest level since mid-September; and $1.2 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, including $1.1 billion in long positions. It’s against this backdrop that October’s nonfarm payrolls report comes out tonight at 21:30.
This isn’t just an employment report—it’s a ballot on whether the Fed will hike rates again in December. CME currently puts the odds of a 25-basis-point December hike at 68.7%, down from 80% a week ago. That 11-percentage-point gap is what’s driving all the volatility tonight.
Three figures to watch, in this order
First, average hourly earnings month over month: expected at 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously. This is the most direct gauge of persistent inflation. A higher reading would immediately revive the rate-hike narrative.
Second, job gains: Dow Jones expects 59,000, while the consensus estimate is 65,000. Forecasts range from 50,000 to 100,000, compared with 29,000 previously. That wide range shows that even the institutions aren’t sure.
Third, the unemployment rate: expected at 4.2%. If employment is strong while unemployment also rises, that points to strength driven by shrinking labor supply, not demand.
One more bit of context: ADP came in at 86,000 (vs. 69,000 expected), initial jobless claims were 189,000 (near a 57-year low), and JOLTS showed 7.52 million openings. Leading indicators are broadly strong. So while the market is talking about 65,000, it’s bracing for a number above 100,000.