Many people are watching to see whether BTC will hit a new low in the fourth quarter, since in several past cycles, BTC’s major bottoms mostly occurred in Q4. This seasonal pattern has led many to believe that this time will be no exception.
Looking at historical price movements, each BTC correction has seen several relatively important lows. The last two lows are often not far apart, with liquidity sweeps in between. 2023 was a typical example, and this cycle has actually shown a similar structure.
Rather than interpreting BTC’s current pullback from its high as the start of a new bear market, I’m more inclined to see it as a knock-on effect of the decline in traditional markets. U.S. stocks are falling, and the market is starting to reduce its risk exposure, so naturally, cryptocurrencies can hardly remain unaffected.
The biggest point of disagreement here is really this: should we trust seasonality or market structure?
Personally, I put more weight on the latter. Seasonality is just a historical pattern; it doesn’t mean every cycle has to follow it. Simply because BTC has often bottomed in Q4 in the past
Looking at historical price movements, each BTC correction has seen several relatively important lows. The last two lows are often not far apart, with liquidity sweeps in between. 2023 was a typical example, and this cycle has actually shown a similar structure.
Rather than interpreting BTC’s current pullback from its high as the start of a new bear market, I’m more inclined to see it as a knock-on effect of the decline in traditional markets. U.S. stocks are falling, and the market is starting to reduce its risk exposure, so naturally, cryptocurrencies can hardly remain unaffected.
The biggest point of disagreement here is really this: should we trust seasonality or market structure?
Personally, I put more weight on the latter. Seasonality is just a historical pattern; it doesn’t mean every cycle has to follow it. Simply because BTC has often bottomed in Q4 in the past
