$Bull is here. This time, it’s not an ordinary pullback: the account long-short ratio has collapsed rapidly, indicating that crowded longs are exiting en masse.
As of 10:58, spot was around 0.05547, down 16.75% over 24 hours, with a low of 0.05200. Open interest fell 8.91% over 24 hours, and the account long-short ratio dropped from 1.51 last night to 1.12. The verifiable facts are that price, open interest, and the proportion of longs all declined in tandem. The market’s interpretation is that this was a capitulation-style deleveraging of long positions. The current rebound looks more like a pause in selling pressure; there is not yet enough evidence to confirm a bottom.
The conditions at 0.06390, 0.06280, and 0.06180 from last night have all been invalidated. There was no formal entry plan before, so no entry was made. A full 1-hour close back above the EMA20 at around 0.05695 would indicate that the decline has stabilized; holding above 0.06010 would signal structural recovery. Losing 0.05200 again would mean weakness is continuing.
Data on position concentration and full unlock schedules is still insufficient. After deleveraging, highly volatile meme coins could still retest their lows.
#牛来 #行情分析 #Risk Management
As of 10:58, spot was around 0.05547, down 16.75% over 24 hours, with a low of 0.05200. Open interest fell 8.91% over 24 hours, and the account long-short ratio dropped from 1.51 last night to 1.12. The verifiable facts are that price, open interest, and the proportion of longs all declined in tandem. The market’s interpretation is that this was a capitulation-style deleveraging of long positions. The current rebound looks more like a pause in selling pressure; there is not yet enough evidence to confirm a bottom.
The conditions at 0.06390, 0.06280, and 0.06180 from last night have all been invalidated. There was no formal entry plan before, so no entry was made. A full 1-hour close back above the EMA20 at around 0.05695 would indicate that the decline has stabilized; holding above 0.06010 would signal structural recovery. Losing 0.05200 again would mean weakness is continuing.
Data on position concentration and full unlock schedules is still insufficient. After deleveraging, highly volatile meme coins could still retest their lows.
#牛来 #行情分析 #Risk Management