11.6 Bitcoin & Ethereum Strategy: Nonfarm Payrolls Are the Main Event Tonight—Treat Any Bounce as a Potential Bull Trap
That huge bearish candle last night was brutal. Bitcoin plunged from above 80,000, wiping out over 5,000 points in no time. Ethereum dropped in sync by more than 200 points. Anyone holding long positions probably didn’t sleep well last night. We timed that morning short trade pretty well.
Why did the market crash? The Democrats won both chambers in the midterm elections, and the market expects AI and crypto regulations could tighten. U.S. tech stocks took a hit first, and risk appetite in crypto was drained. On top of that, inflation hasn’t come down and the Fed is taking a tougher stance on rate hikes. Tonight’s 21:30 nonfarm payrolls report is the main event. The market expects 65,000 new jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate, and 0.3% month-over-month wage growth. But ADP has already reported 86,000. If the nonfarm figure also comes in strong, rate-hike expectations could rise and this bounce could be slapped back down in no time.
Still, don’t get carried away and chase shorts—the drop last night was so steep that bears have already taken some profits, leaving the market prone to a rebound that could stop out short positions. Sister Huan’s view hasn’t changed: don’t buy the dip or chase the drop; wait for a weak rebound before shorting. Keep your position size down and put discipline first.
Look to short Bitcoin on a rebound to around 76900–77400, with an initial target of 75000; if that breaks, look toward 73000.
Look to short Ethereum on a rebound to around 2280–2300, with an initial target of 2170; if that breaks, look toward 2050.
Keep your positions under control before tonight’s nonfarm data comes out. Whatever you do, don’t jump in unprotected.
#AnthropicIPO估值或降至1万亿 $BTC $ETH
That huge bearish candle last night was brutal. Bitcoin plunged from above 80,000, wiping out over 5,000 points in no time. Ethereum dropped in sync by more than 200 points. Anyone holding long positions probably didn’t sleep well last night. We timed that morning short trade pretty well.
Why did the market crash? The Democrats won both chambers in the midterm elections, and the market expects AI and crypto regulations could tighten. U.S. tech stocks took a hit first, and risk appetite in crypto was drained. On top of that, inflation hasn’t come down and the Fed is taking a tougher stance on rate hikes. Tonight’s 21:30 nonfarm payrolls report is the main event. The market expects 65,000 new jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate, and 0.3% month-over-month wage growth. But ADP has already reported 86,000. If the nonfarm figure also comes in strong, rate-hike expectations could rise and this bounce could be slapped back down in no time.
Still, don’t get carried away and chase shorts—the drop last night was so steep that bears have already taken some profits, leaving the market prone to a rebound that could stop out short positions. Sister Huan’s view hasn’t changed: don’t buy the dip or chase the drop; wait for a weak rebound before shorting. Keep your position size down and put discipline first.
Look to short Bitcoin on a rebound to around 76900–77400, with an initial target of 75000; if that breaks, look toward 73000.
Look to short Ethereum on a rebound to around 2280–2300, with an initial target of 2170; if that breaks, look toward 2050.
Keep your positions under control before tonight’s nonfarm data comes out. Whatever you do, don’t jump in unprotected.
#AnthropicIPO估值或降至1万亿 $BTC $ETH
